The ocean economy is important for the global economy
The ocean covers 71% of Earth's surface, comprises 90% of the biosphere, provides food security for over three billion people, enables the transportation of over 80% of global goods, and hosts sea cables carrying 98% of international Internet traffic. New OECD statistics and analysis reveal the vital role that the ocean plays in the economies and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people.
If considered a country, the ocean economy would be the world’s fifth-largest economy in 2019. From 1995 to 2020, it contributed 3% to 4% of global gross value added (GVA) and employed up to 133 million full-time equivalents (FTEs).
The global ocean economy doubled in real terms in 25 years from USD 1.3 trillion of GVA in 1995 to USD 2.6 trillion in 2020, growing at an annual average rate of 2.8%. Employment levels remained relatively constant, reaching a peak of 151 million Full Time Equivalents (FTEs) in 2006, falling to 101 million in 2020 due to COVID-19, with recovery since then.
Over 75% of global ocean economic growth between 1995 and 2020 originated in countries in Asia and the Pacific. Eastern Asia alone accounted for 56% of global ocean economy expansion, while Europe and North America experienced slower growth. The People’s Republic of China, the United States, Japan, Norway, and the United Kingdom had the largest ocean economies in absolute terms on average over the period. However, countries like Norway had the highest ocean-to-overall economy share, demonstrating regional disparities in reliance on the ocean economy.
Tourism and offshore oil and gas extraction generated about two-thirds of total gross value added. However, workforce distribution varied widely. Marine and coastal tourism was the largest employer, while offshore oil and gas extraction created high economic output but relatively low employment. Output from shipbuilding and offshore wind energy also expanded rapidly albeit from a smaller base.
Major disruptions will reshape the ocean economy in the coming decades
If historical trends were to continue, the global ocean economy could be nearly four times larger by 2050 than in 1995. However, various forces could slow or even reverse growth by 2050 if no policy actions are taken.
Global shaping forces will impact ocean health and the ocean economy. Factors such as population growth, climate change and other environmental pressures, trade and globalisation, the energy transition, technological advances, and geopolitical dynamics – along with their interactions – will shape ocean health and the future growth trajectory of the ocean economy. Qualitative and quantitative projections highlight climate change, energy transitions, and advances in science, technology, and innovation as key drivers.
Faltering productivity trends and digitalisation gaps will also shape the ocean economy’s future potential. While some ocean economic activities outpaced average industry growth between 1995 and 2020, multifactor productivity declined in more than half the ocean economic activity groups analysed. The contribution of capital services to ocean economic growth was heavily tilted towards non-information and communication technology assets providing some evidence that ocean economic activities are not making the most of powerful drivers of productivity to prepare for an increasingly automated future.
Different pathways for a global energy transition will affect ocean economic growth in different ways. In an accelerated transition to low-carbon energy, the ocean economy would continue to grow through 2050 to around 2.5 times the size it was in 1995. The composition of the ocean economy would change, with marine and coastal tourism remaining dominant and offshore oil and gas declining as a proportion of total ocean economy GVA. A stalled transition scenario could lead to a decline in overall ocean economic activity from the level reached in 2020, mainly due to a combination of a lack of investment in productivity and increasing negative effects of climate change on many parts of the ocean economy.
Four strategic priorities can help achieve a productive and environmentally sustainable ocean economy
By strengthening ocean governance, promoting technological innovation, enhancing ocean data collection, and ensuring the inclusion of developing countries in global value chains, policymakers can lay the foundations for a future ocean economy that is both economically vibrant and environmentally sustainable.
Strengthening ocean governance and regulatory frameworks can be realised with the use of science-based ocean management tools that balance economic and environmental priorities such as maritime spatial planning and marine protected areas. With national territorial claims expanding to over nearly 39% of the global ocean, national positions on ocean issues can be boosted by pragmatic international co-operation through agreements such as the WTO Fisheries Subsidies Agreement and the High Seas Agreement (BBNJ). These efforts can help close regulatory and enforcement gaps (e.g. reforming harmful subsidies that often drive overfishing) and align economic incentives with sustainability goals.
Promoting technological innovation and digital transformation. Governments should encourage public and private investment in ICT-driven solutions, automation, and robotics to enhance productivity and competitiveness and reduce environmental externalities. This would involve strengthening workforce development programmes to upskill workers in key industries, preparing them for a more digitalised economy and supporting ocean economy innovation clusters to foster cross-industry and -sector collaboration and advances.
Enhancing ocean observation data collection and scientific research. Expanding ocean knowledge is critical for science, conservation, and the economy. With only 25% of the seabed mapped, ocean exploration and observation networks should expand using new digital technologies. These efforts should enhance science-based decision-making and resource management. To support these developments, better public and private ocean data accessibility policies will be essential.
Expanding developing countries' participation in the ocean economy while safeguarding against environmental harms. With shifting demographics and evolving natural resource availability, developing countries can benefit from greater ocean economy participation. Achieving this will require integrated ocean strategies that place the conservation and sustainable use of the marine environment as their primary objective. Policies like sustainable fisheries management and eco-friendly tourism incentives should be encouraged. Additionally, fostering new international partnerships will facilitate two-way knowledge-sharing while enhancing financial support and technology transfers.
