Growth is projected at 0.7% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. The global energy price shock and weak automotive production constrain trade and consumption. Absorption of EU funds will continue to support investment in 2026 but heightened economic uncertainty will dampen capital formation going forward. Persistently higher energy prices, the future fiscal consolidation mix, and lower-than-expected growth in Europe, especially in the automotive sector, represent clear downside risks to the outlook.
To ensure that the needed fiscal adjustment path is achieved, it is key to keep shifting its composition from revenue increases to spending restraint. Improving the efficiency of public spending, including by strengthening project preparation and implementation capacity, can improve the use of EU funds. Better targeting of energy subsidies would ease the significant burden on the budget, remove distortions, and encourage energy-efficiency efforts. Cutting red tape while strengthening the rule of law would durably boost growth prospects.