Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Rising inflation will reduce real wage growth, mitigating the recovery in private consumption. Defence-related purchases and rising public wages will continue to support public consumption, while rising public investment will crowd in business investment. Exports will recover gradually as global demand strengthens. Inflation will remain high due to rising energy prices and strong wage growth. Delays in the absorption of EU funds could dampen the recovery in domestic demand.
Raising spending efficiency and revenue, and reallocating spending are key to ensuring medium-term fiscal sustainability. Accelerating the modernisation of the public administration, reducing the administrative burden and enhancing policy impact evaluation would raise spending efficiency and support growth. Strengthening competition enforcement and addressing skills shortages by improving training opportunities and facilitating skilled immigration would support business dynamism. Further improving integration into the EU electricity market and expanding renewable energy supply would help raise energy security.