Since 2016, the OECD has been assessing fragility in most countries and contexts across the world using a multidimensional framework covering economic, environmental, human, political, security and societal dimensions. It uses 8 to 10 quantitative indicators in each of the six dimensions for a total of 56 indicators.
Conflict and fragility
Understanding fragility is key to building global resilience. The OECD offers policy solutions, data, and expertise to help development co-operation providers remain engaged in "contexts exposed to high and extreme fragility”, i.e. communities, systems or states struggling to cope with a combination of risks at a given time.
Key messages
Countries cannot simply grow out of fragility; economic growth is a necessary but insufficient condition. There are now more middle-income contexts classified as facing high and extreme fragility than low-income. They face specific fragility-related challenges linked to debt sustainability, sub-national violence, and conflict spillovers.
Conflict-affected contexts tend to be exposed to higher levels of fragility, but the majority of contexts facing high and extreme fragility are not in a state of war. Fragility however increases the risk of conflict or crisis. Helping countries and communities to address its drivers is thus key to preventing conflict and supporting peace.
Fragility makes it hard to adapt to climate change, manage related risks, and cope with the impacts of biodiversity loss and environmental degradation. Yet, despite some recent progress, contexts with high and extreme fragility remain under-served by climate-related development finance. The OECD offers insights into ways to prioritise action on climate and environmental fragility and access the financing necessary to do so.
Forced displacement creates urgent humanitarian needs, but it often also becomes a long-term phenomenon: with little perspective of returning to their countries of origin, many forcibly displaced people find themselves caught in a hosting environment that is already experiencing high levels of fragility. Beyond humanitarian support, therefore, development partners must facilitate their social and economic integration by reinforcing the capacities of national social systems and institutions.
Context
Fragility increased the most in contexts already facing extreme levels of it
Overall, global fragility has increased moderately since 2016, mostly driven by political, security and economic factors.
It remains concentrated in the 61 contexts facing high (43) and extreme (18) fragility. The latter account for the largest part of the overall increase, suggesting that extreme fragility may be self-perpetuating.
ODA for humanitarian assistance went up but the share for peace activities dropped
Official development assistance (ODA) for peace in contexts facing high and extreme fragility is at its second lowest volume since 2004. In contrast, humanitarian ODA to these contexts reached a record high level in 2023.
In contexts facing extreme fragility, humanitarian assistance now accounts for 50% of ODA allocations, reflect the reactive nature of Development Assistance Committee members' engagement in conflict prevention.
Organised violence in contexts with high and extreme fragility peaked in 2021-22
Although the overall number of fatalities declined in 2023, 24 of the 61 contexts with high and extreme fragility were affected by one or several conflicts or wars that year.
Violence is more diffused. Forty-seven out of 59 state-based armed conflicts (interstate, intrastate and internationalised intrastate) in the world took place or involved a context facing high or extreme fragility.
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