Adult learning systems are being called upon to prepare workers for major labour market shifts, including the green transition and the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in the workplace. While initial education is important, upskilling and reskilling the existing workforce is essential to help individuals and businesses adapt and prepare for these transitions. Policy makers face the challenge of ensuring training is both relevant and inclusive, yet there is limited understanding of whether current training supply is sufficient to meet current and future skill needs. Most research focuses on the demand for skills, with little insight into the supply. To fill this gap, this report uses evidence from new OECD questionnaires and an analysis of training catalogues to evaluate whether current training supply aligns with the skills needed for the green and AI transitions. It also provides insight into the accessibility and flexibility of training efforts, to guide policy makers in their efforts to develop more effective, inclusive training strategies.
Training Supply for the Green and AI Transitions
Abstract
Executive Summary
Adult learning systems are being called upon to respond to various transitions facing labour markets, including the shift towards a net-zero economy and the diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) in workplaces. If designed well, upskilling and reskilling policies can help individuals, firms and economies harness the benefits of these transitions and mitigate adverse employment effects.
The potential adverse employment effects of these transitions are expected to be uneven across groups. Evidence suggests that low-skilled adults, workers in greenhouse gas (GHG)-intensive occupations, and those in jobs with a high automation risk are particularly vulnerable. As these same adults tend to engage less frequently in training than their counterparts, policy makers are faced with the challenge of making training more accessible, flexible and inclusive.
Yet, policy makers currently lack a clear overview of the supply of training and whether it is sufficient to meet the needs of either the green transition or the increased diffusion of AI. Studies about training needs often focus on the demand side – the skills and knowledge that employers are having trouble sourcing – but say little about the supply side – whether and how training providers offer relevant course content or governments set-up appropriate programmes. To help address this gap, this report draws on two new policy questionnaires distributed to OECD countries to shed light on how countries are investing in skills development for these transitions. It also presents new evidence from an analysis of training catalogues in four countries: Australia, Germany, Singapore and the United States.
The report provides insights on: i) whether the current training supply is aligned with the skills needed for the green transition; ii) whether the current training supply is aligned with the skills needed for increased AI adoption; iii) how accessible and flexible the delivery of green- and AI-related training is; and iv) how countries are ensuring that skills development is inclusive. In doing so, the report aims to support policy makers in developing effective training policies particularly for the green and AI transitions.
Based on the responses of 27 OECD countries to a new policy questionnaire, this report finds that all countries have a policy or strategy in place related to upskilling and reskilling for the green transition. Additionally, most governments have introduced incentives for education and training institutions to develop or update course content to align with the skills needed for green-driven jobs. Some governments have given subsidies or tax deductions to employers offering green-related training to employees. Notably, 26 of 27 countries provide incentives for workers and jobseekers, making them the most common initiative used.
Twenty-one governments have also launched publicly-funded training programmes to upskill and reskill workers and jobseekers for the green transition. Over 40 publicly-funded green-related training programmes were identified across the countries that responded to the policy questionnaire. Most of these programmes train workers and jobseekers in green sectors, like renewable energy and natural resources. Some also train workers in non-green sectors in skills expected to rise in demand with the green transition.
Additionally, novel quantitative analysis finds that across Australia, Germany, Singapore and the United States, between 2.1% and 14.1% of available training courses deliver green content. The availability of green-related training appears to be largely dependent on the sector of adult learning, with greater green training provision observed in the vocational sector. This estimate is based on catalogues of formal and non-formal learning opportunities and does not take into account learning within firms or undertaken informally. Nonetheless, with 20% of workers employed in green-driven occupations and a further 6% of workers employed in GHG-intensive occupations, the current supply of green-related training may be insufficient to meet demand.
Based on the responses of 21 OECD countries to a new policy questionnaire, this report finds that, while not all, several countries have developed dedicated AI strategies. Moreover, numerous countries have introduced incentives to support employers in providing training for their employees, typically through subsidies or tax deductions. However, these financial incentives often lack a direct focus on AI skills. Similarly, whilst financial support for training programmes is on offer to workers and jobseekers, these initiatives are not explicitly tied to AI skills development.
Fourteen governments have invested in publicly-funded training programmes for AI. Nine programmes focus on developing AI professionals while seven provide training in AI literacy for the general public. Publicly-funded digital skills training – without an explicit focus on AI – is more common.
Quantitative analysis finds that across Australia, Germany, Singapore and the United States, between 0.3% and 5.5% of available training courses deliver AI content – that is, content related to the development of both advanced AI skills and more general AI literacy. This estimate is derived from formal and non-formal training catalogues and excludes learning within firms or undertaken informally. With one in three job vacancies having high AI exposure, a significant proportion of the labour force is expected to be exposed to changes in the nature of work brought about by AI. Policy makers may consider scaling up the supply of AI-related training courses to meet the growing adoption of AI in the economy, considering approaches to provide both general AI literacy to a wider population and specific AI skills for AI professionals.
Green-related training appears more commonly delivered through in-person sessions rather than online, when compared with other types of training. This trend might be attributed to the nature of green-related training, which frequently involves hands-on learning of new technologies, making virtual delivery less feasible.
AI-related courses, on the other hand, lean towards online delivery and tend to be geared towards advanced skills, indicating a current focus on cultivating AI professionals. Going forward, there is an opportunity to broaden the accessibility of courses to promote general AI literacy.
Recognising that both the green and AI transitions will have unequal employment impacts across groups, and that some groups are less likely to participate in upskilling and reskilling, governments are taking initiatives to ensure inclusive access to training.
To broaden access to green-related training, 12 of the countries surveyed state that they have career guidance initiatives in place to facilitate transition into green jobs. Furthermore, 21 countries report that they have financial incentives for workers and/or jobseekers to train in green-related areas, a key support measure to broaden the inclusiveness of training. Several of these financial incentives are targeted specifically at adults with low formal qualifications, who are most vulnerable to job displacement.
When it comes to AI, only five countries in this report indicate that they have specific career guidance initiatives aimed at facilitating employment transitions in the context of AI. Although AI-specific career guidance may not be necessary in every context – some countries integrate AI guidance into broader, more holistic services – there remains an opportunity for countries to use a more targeted approach. By doing so, they could encourage greater participation in AI-related training and careers.
