The changing dynamics in global metal markets

The energy transition and the rise in trade restrictions driven by geo-fragmentation present significant risks to critical mineral markets. This paper examines a subset of essential transition-critical minerals—aluminium, cobalt, copper, lithium and nickel—to assess how these markets may be impacted by shifting global economic dynamics. Through a three-fold analysis, the study explores the key drivers of commodity price formation, the medium-term effects of trade interventions on price expectations, and the short-term volatility triggered by trade announcements. The findings and discussion focus on the risks to the energy transition and financial markets.