Since 2020, international trade has been significantly impacted by multiple, overlapping shocks that continue to reshape global trading patterns. The COVID-19 pandemic’s initial wave of restrictions shut down many economies, abruptly shifting consumption from services to goods and causing widespread disruptions across supply chains and transportation networks. As economies began to recover, pent-up demand stemming from the COVID-19 period added further pressure on already strained supply chains. At the same time, new challenges soon emerged ─ including the ongoing Russian Federation's (hereafter, Russia) war of aggression against Ukraine and associated sanctions against Russia, increasing trade tensions between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (hereafter, China), and the crisis in the Middle East and the Red Sea ─ further disrupting trade flows and adding uncertainty to markets.
It was during the COVD-19 recovery that international trade and trade policy community recognised the need for timely information on these rapidly evolving trade patterns and this is when the OECD launched its first in a series of annual reports monitoring the rapid developments in global trade. These updates provide essential analysis of the impacts of these unprecedented disruptions on the international trading system. Using high-frequency, detailed data and advanced modelling tools, past reports in this series have offered insights into the ongoing recovery from the pandemic and highlighted the trade implications of the Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.
As the fourth report in this series, this update on international trade developments continues to monitor important trends in international trade amidst the aftermath of the pandemic and recent escalations in geopolitical tensions, such as changes in aggregate trade flows, trading patterns at the product and partner level and international commodity prices. In addition, this report includes an overview of maritime routes and choke points and discusses how recent disruptions in key maritime routes may have impacted shipping costs and global trade overall. In the context of recent concerns and tensions over growing trade dependencies in the electric vehicles market (EVs), the report also examines the evolution in the global concentration of trade in EVs and EV batteries, critical components in the green transition, with long, complex supply chains which are increasingly targeted by industrial and trade policies.
This OECD update on international trade developments serves as a critical resource for understanding current shifts in the trade landscape. It informs policy discussions and contributes to broader trade-related research, helping stakeholders navigate a rapidly evolving global trade environment by providing analyses on both the risks and resilience of global trade.