Metropolitan regions attract the highest proportion of migrants
As OECD countries face ageing populations and a shrinking workforce, international migration becomes a key source of potential workers (OECD, 2022). In recent years, migrants – defined as individuals born outside of their country of residence – have contributed to labour force growth in most OECD member countries, helping to ease labour shortages (OECD, 2023). By 2022, migrants made up 14% of the OECD population. Luxembourg had the highest proportion at nearly 50%, while Japan, Mexico and Poland had less than 2%. Over the past decade, the migrant share of the population has increased in most OECD countries, except in the Baltic States, Greece and Israel, where it declined.
Metropolitan regions in the OECD have higher shares of migrant populations compared to non‑metropolitan regions. In 2022, about 14% of metropolitan residents were migrants, a share almost twice as high as in other regions (7.9% for regions near and 7.5% for regions far from a midsize/large FUA) (Figure 2.15). Over the last decade, the migrant share has increased by about 2 p.p. in metropolitan regions and around 1.5 p.p. in regions near and far from a midsize/large FUA. Importantly, this trend is consistent across all OECD countries with available data, except for Spain (Figure 2.16). The difference between the migrant share in metropolitan regions and other regions is that it is the largest in Austria, Belgium, the United Kingdom and the United States, and the smallest is in Denmark, Italy and Korea.
Most migrants live in regions that are not facing population decline. In 2020, 83% (or 8 out of 10 migrants) lived in regions with stable or growing populations (Figure 2.17). In contrast, 7% lived in regions that faced a decline in the past and are also expected to decline further in the future. An additional 1% of the population lived in regions that experienced a population decline between 2010 and 2020 but are not expected to decline further. Nine percent lived in regions that did not experience a decline in the past but are projected to see a population decrease between 2020 and 2030. Compared to migrants, a larger share of the native-born population resides in regions facing demographic decline. For example, 20% lived in regions that saw a decline in the past and are also expected to decline further in the future. An additional 2% lived in regions that experienced a population decline between 2010 and 2020 but are not expected to decline further. Thirteen percent lived in regions that did not experience a decline in the past but are projected to see a population decrease between 2020 and 2030.
Migrants could potentially help slow population decline in some regions. Currently, migrants comprise about 13% of the population in regions that have not experienced population decline, compared to only 4% in regions that faced a decline between 2010 and 2020 or are projected to by 2030. However, beyond the immediate boost to population levels, the effects of immigration on population shrinking are uncertain; in some cases, the additional population can create a virtuous circle and a critical mass that stymies further outward migration or indeed attracts population. Other immigrants may also eventually choose to migrate to other parts of the country or other countries, especially if perceptions of migrants are negative.
