Demographic change, affecting regions in Asia and Europe more strongly, implies very different transformations within countries
Half of OECD countries are expected to lose population in the coming decades and the old-age to working-age ratio is projected to double over the next four decades (OECD, 2023; 2024). This future is already a reality in many places because demographic change is very uneven within countries. Population decline reduces the labour force and can lower GDP growth in regions and cities due to decreased economic activity. With growing demands on healthcare, pensions and social services, regions, cities and local areas need to prepare to maintain high standards of well-being for all citizens at a new scale (OECD, 2021).
In this context, many OECD large regions, especially in Asia and Europe, have seen their populations stagnate or decline over the last two decades. About 1 in 5 large OECD regions (104 out of 500) lost population, with the most significant declines in Eastern Europe, Germany, Italy, Japan and Korea (Figure 1.24 and Figure 1.25). All regions in Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia and over half of the regions in Greece, Poland and Portugal saw population declines in the past two decades. Almost half (19 out of 40) of OECD member and accession countries with available data had at least 1 region experiencing a population decline. In those countries, population change varied by 89 people per 1 000 per year on average across regions. Japan, Türkiye and the United States had at least 1 region decreasing in population and 1 region growing by at least 200 persons per 1 000 per year in the period. In contrast, most regions in the Americas and Oceania saw their populations expand by as much as 50 people or more per 1 000 per annum. In countries like Hungary, Japan and Romania, capital-city regions grew in population while the rest of the country saw population decline.
The drivers behind population change vary widely across continents and small region types. Between 2001 and 2021, North America and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) saw faster population growth, especially in metropolitan regions, driven by natural change (births minus deaths) in North America and migration in Oceania (Figure 1.22). In North America, regions far from a midsize/large FUA would have grown as fast as metropolitan regions if they had not experienced negative net migration. In Asia and Europe, population growth was slower, with non-metropolitan regions declining in population due to more deaths than births. Overall, OECD regions experienced moderate population growth, faster in metropolitan regions, thanks to the additional contribution of net migration.
In addition to population losses, many regions are also ageing. In 2023, the old-age dependency ratio – the proportion of people over 64 in the working-age population – varied from 13% in Mexico to 38% in Portugal. Within countries, the average gap between the region with the largest and smallest old-age dependency ratio was 15 p.p., with a maximum of 37 p.p. in France. However, about 1 in 4 (28%) large regions in 27 countries (out of 40 with available data) had 1 old-age person for every 3 working-age individuals (Figure 1.23). In seven regions in Japan, statistically, one person “depends” on the support of only two working individuals (OECD, 2024). In all but three countries (Hungary, Mexico and the Slovak Republic), the old-age dependency ratio is smaller in capital-city regions than the national average. Ageing varies widely within countries: Australia, Canada, France, Japan, Portugal, Spain and Türkiye had gaps in old-age dependency ratios of at least 20 p.p.
