The report Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2024: The Geography of Generative AI examines the health of regional labour markets and provides new estimates on regional labour shortages. In addition, it provides new findings on the impact of Generative AI on different regions and workers. It examines how AI technologies can be leveraged to address critical labour market challenges and boost productivity growth.
Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2024 - Country Notes: Bulgaria
(a) Employment rate for the working age population (15-64 year-olds), 2023
Note: The figure shows the regional values and the national and OECD regional average in the working-age employment rate in 2023. The employment rate is defined as the number of working-age employed persons out of the working-age population, where the working-age is defined as 15-64 year-olds.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Regional databases.
In Bulgaria the employment rate in 2023 varies across regions, ranging from a low of 61.7% in North West to 74.6% in South West. This represents a difference of 12.9 percentage points, above the average OECD regional dispersion of 10 percentage points. The national employment rate in Bulgaria stands at 69.4%, close to the OECD benchmark of 69.4%.
(a) Change in the employment rate, 2019 to 2023
Note: The figure shows the difference between 2019 and 2023 for the employment rate for regions in Bulgaria, as well as the national and OECD regional average. The employment rate is defined as the number of working-age employed persons out of the working-age population, where the working-age is defined as 15-64 year-olds.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Regional databases.
By 2023, over half of (4 out of 6) of Bulgarian regions saw their employment recover to at least pre-pandemic levels. In North Central and South West employment did not return to pre-crisis levels. North East experienced the greatest recovery for employment rates, surpassing the pre-pandemic level by 4.6 percentage points. Overall, employment rates are 0.9 percentage points above pre-crisis levels, a weaker recovery than the regional OECD average of 1.5 percentage points.
(a) Change in the gap in the participation rate by age (between 25-64 year-olds and 15-24 year-olds) and gender (between men and women), 2013 to 2023
Note: The figure shows regional values and the national and OECD regional average in the change in the age gap (difference between the prime-age working population (25-64 year-olds) and youth (15-24 year-olds) and the gender gap (difference between men and women) in the participation rate in 2013 and that in 2023. A negative value implies that disparities decreased. The participation rate is defined as the number of employed persons and those looking for work as a share of the population in that subgroup. For gender disparities, it is defined using the working age population of 15-64 year-olds.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Regional databases.
Over the past ten years, the gap in participation rates between prime-age and younger workers (age inclusion gap) increased in all out of 6 regions in Bulgaria, on average by 14.7 percentage points. The age inclusion gap grew by 1.3 percentage points across OECD regions. The smallest increase in age disparities occurred in North Central at 9.5 percentage points, while the biggest increase was in North East by 21.4 percentage points. Over the same period, the gap in participation rates between male and female workers (gender inclusion gap) fell in 3 out of 6 regions. The gender inclusion gap fell by, on average, 0.7 percentage points. The biggest increase in gender disparities was in South Central by 3.1 percentage points, while the biggest decrease was in North Central at -5.6 percentage points.
(a) Share of self-employed among all employed persons in the working-age population, 2022
Note: The figure shows the regional values and the national and OECD regional average in the share of self-employed among all working-age employed persons in 2022. The working-age population is defined as 15-64 year-olds.
Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force survey. For countries in the European Union, the survey is the EU-LFS.
In Bulgaria self-employment levels stand at 9.7%, below the OECD benchmark of 15.5%. South Central has the highest share of self-employed workers at 11.8%. North Central, on the other hand, has the lowest share of self-employed workers at 7.5%.
(a) Share of youth not in employment, education or training among the youth working-age population, 2019
Note: The figure shows the regional values and the national and OECD regional average in the NEET rate (not in employment, education or training) for the youth working-age population (15-24 year-olds) in 2019.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Regional databases.
In Bulgaria, less than half (1 out of 6 regions with available data) have youth not in employment, education, or training (NEET) rates below the OECD benchmark of 16.8%, while the regional mean stands at 21%. The highest rate of youth exclusion is observed in North West at 33.5%, while the lowest rate is in South West at 6.2%. This underscores the uneven opportunities for youth across the country.
(a) Labour productivity in USD 2015 PPP per worker, 2022
Note: The figure shows the regional values and the national and OECD regional average of labour productivity (USD 2015 PPP per worker) in 2022. The parentheses describe the difference in labour productivity relative to the national average. Labour productivity is defined as gross value added, measured in USD 2015 purchasing power parity, per worker.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Regional databases.
(a) Ten-year annual labour productivity growth, 2012 to 2022
Note: The figure shows the regional values and the national and OECD regional average in the ten year annual growth rate of labour productivity (USD 2015 PPP per worker) from 2012 to 2022. Labour productivity is defined as gross value added, measured in USD 2015 purchasing power parity, per worker.
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Regional databases.
In 0 out of 6 regions in Bulgaria, labour productivity is above the OECD benchmark. South West leads labour productivity levels at 48% above the regional average. The lowest labour productivity is observed in South Central at -16% below the national average. Annual labour productivity growth in Bulgaria over the past ten years is at 2.3%, above the OECD regional average of 0.9%. The strongest labour productivity growth is observed in North West at 2.8% annual growth, and the weakest in North East where labour productivity increased by 1.8% annually.
(a) Share of workers in low-, middle-, and high-skilled jobs, 2022
Note: The figure shows the share of workers in low-, middle- and high-skilled jobs for regions in Bulgaria as well as the national and OECD regional average in 2022. Job skill is defined using ISCO occupational categories. Low skill corresponds to jobs in sales and services and un-skilled occupations (ISCO 5 and 9), medium-skilled workers hold jobs as clerks, craft workers, plant and machine operators and assemblers (ISCO 4, 7 and 8), and high-skilled workers are those who have jobs in managerial, professional, technical and associated professional occupations (ISCO 1, 2 and 3). The definition of skill is based on the educational level thought to be required of an occupation and does not consider skills not related to educational level.
Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force survey. For countries in the European Union, the survey is the EU-LFS.
In Bulgaria, jobs requiring high skill levels dominate in 1 out of the 6 regions. South West stands out with the highest share of high-skill jobs (44.3%), above the OECD average of 44%. South Central has the highest proportion of medium-skill jobs, above the OECD benchmark of 30%. The share of low-skill jobs ranges from 27.3% in South West to 39.6% in North East, highlighting notable regional variation in job skill composition.
(a) Share of workers in mismatched jobs by over- and under-skilled, 2022
Note: The figure shows the regional values and the national and OECD regional average in the share of workers in mismatched jobs in 2022. Skill mismatch is calculated following the methodology of the Skills for Jobs Indicators of the OECD’s Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, whereby a worker is in a mismatched job when their educational skill level does not match the most common skill level of workers in that occupational group in that country. ‘Over-skilled’ means that the worker has an educational skill level above the most common educational skill level of their occupation. `Under-skilled’ means that the worker has an educational skill level below the most common educational skill level of their occupation.
Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force survey. For countries in the European Union, the survey is the EU-LFS.
Skill mismatches are less prevalent in Bulgaria than in the OECD overall: 25% of workers are in jobs that do not match their educational skill level, compared to 35% across OECD regions. This ranges from 34% mismatched workers in OECD to 20% in South West.
(a) Differences of regional labour market tightness (vacancies over unemployment) relative to the national average, 2022.
Note: This figure shows the difference in labour market tightness between regions and the national level (in %) on the horizontal axis. Labour market tightness is defined as the number of vacancies over unemployment.
Source: Own elaboration based on Lightcast, EU-LFS, UK-LFS, Bureau of Labour Statistics (USA), and Australian Bureau of Statistics.
In Bulgaria, the extent of labour shortages varies by region. Taking labour market tightness (i.e. vacancies divided by unemployment), as a proxy, South West is the region that faces the most severe labour shortages with 108% more vacancies per unemployed person than Bulgaria as a whole. In contrast, North West is the region that experiences the least severe labour shortages, as it has 79% fewer vacancies per unemployed person than Bulgaria on average.
References
OECD (2024), Job Creation and Local Economic Development 2024: The Geography of Generative AI https://doi.org/10.1787/83325127-en
Source of administrative boundaries: © OECD, © EuroGeographics, National Statistical Offices, © UN-FAO Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL)
This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
Note by the Republic of Türkiye
The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiye shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union
The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
@OECD 2024
Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to be bound by the terms of this licence https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Attribution – you must cite the work.
Translations – you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text: In the event of any discrepancy between the original work and the translation, only the text of original work should be considered valid.
Adaptations – you must cite the original work and add the following text: This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its Member countries.
Third-party material – the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible for obtaining permission from the third party and for any claims of infringement. You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses your use of the work.
Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court