The OECD initiated the project “Shrinking Smartly and Sustainably: Preparing Regions for Demographic Change”, financed by the European Commission (DG REGIO), in February 2023. This project aims to produce a framework and associated guidelines to manage demographic change in regions experiencing strong and sustained population decline. It comprises two main pillars:
1. The analytical pillar uses internationally comparable data and complementary sources for selected countries to disentangle the drivers of demographic change and produce indicators relevant to regions facing population decline. It uses new and updated data on demographics, land use, built environment, housing, infrastructure and fiscal data to analyse population shrinkage. The pillar will propose:
- internationally comparable indicators relevant for shrinking regions on demographic scenarios and their consequences; on land use, infrastructure, housing density/quality, and environment;
o and on multi-level governance, public finances, and service delivery and infrastructure. - and a technical paper on demographic scenarios.
2. The policy pillar explores the relationship between depopulation, ageing, multi-level governance structures and finance, including for service delivery and infrastructure. Looking at policy options available at the national and regional levels, mainly adaptation measures, but also mitigation, the policy pillar will propose:
- a working paper proposing a policy framework to address demographic change;
- a compendium of good policy practices to manage population decline;
- a set of guidelines for the multi-level governance of demographic change;
- three peer-to-peer knowledge-exchange dialogues – bringing together policy practitioners from a variety of OECD member states and providing a wealth of different experiences that will feed the project’s deliverables – on adapting governance, finance, services and infrastructure smartly in shrinking regions (15 December 2023); shrinking small cities (2024); and spatial planning, land use, infrastructure, and housing (2024).
In addition, the project combines cross-country and case-study evidence, in particular through three country case studies:
- Shrinking small cities, in Portugal
- Land use planning, built-up growth, and housing, in Korea
- Multi-level governance and finance – with a focus on service delivery and infrastructure – in Finland.
A Consultation Group made up of experts and academics reflecting the various policy areas of the project is supporting the OECD throughout the project.
Finally, all the deliverables of this project will be summarised in a comprehensive synthesis report to be published at the end of the project.
