Amidst a context of ongoing educational reforms, Wales is striving to support strong pathways and smooth transitions for upper secondary learners. This report was commissioned to support Wales’ ambitions for implementing the Curriculum for Wales and developing a cohesive, learner-centered upper secondary education system. The report explores how, internationally, countries organise upper secondary education, including the design of curricula and qualifications, and how these shape learner pathways and transitions. Drawing on insights from eight comparison systems and OECD-wide data, the report highlights policy pointers for Wales to support progression in learners’ pathways and to enable transitions to further and higher education – and the world beyond – for all learners.
What Shapes Pathways and Transitions?

Abstract
Executive Summary
Wales (United Kingdom) has high ambitions for its education system and its young people . The ‘four purposes’ of education, entrenched within the Curriculum for Wales, aim for young people to become:
ambitious, capable learners, ready to learn throughout their lives
enterprising, creative contributors, ready to play a full part in life and work
ethical, informed citizens of Wales and the world
healthy, confident individuals, ready to lead fulfilling lives as valued members of society.
Achieving the ambitious objectives of the Curriculum for Wales relies on sustained efforts to ensure that all aspects of the education system are united towards its goals. With implementation of the Curriculum for Wales now continuing into secondary schools, Wales is tackling one of the most complex stages of implementation. Implementation in secondary will require alignment across different areas, including the qualifications learners take at age 14-16, the ways in which schools develop their local curricula, the requirements on schools for reporting and accountability mechanisms, as well as how the system as a whole supports smooth transitions to post-16 education.
In this context, Wales requested this report from the OECD to consider how the country can consistently and cohesively promote the aims and aspirations of the Curriculum for Wales across the full upper secondary period (14-19). The report was produced by the OECD Above and Beyond: Transitions in Upper Secondary Education project. It draws on internationally comparative evidence, including OECD-wide data and examples from selected peer systems – British Columbia (Canada), Estonia, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Portugal, Singapore and Sweden.
Chapter 1 introduces the report, presenting an overview of the current context of educational reform in Wales and the changing landscape of qualifications, accountability mechanisms and post-16 education policy leadership. Chapter 1 also provides an overview of upper secondary education across OECD countries, with a specific focus on the eight comparison systems featured in this report. The text below sets out key points from the report’s main substantive chapters.
The curriculum’s role in shaping pathways and transitions (Chapter 2)
Copy link to The curriculum’s role in shaping pathways and transitions (Chapter 2)Wales is unique among the comparison systems in not having a curriculum that spans the full length of upper secondary education.
Schools in Wales have significant autonomy over their offer – the subjects and qualifications for learners – to a greater extent than other comparison systems.
Wales’ new ‘14 to 16 Learner Guidance’ has the potential to support consistency in the range of subject options and learning opportunities learners access across different schools. However, implementation activities and support aligned to this Guidance, such as tools, development opportunities and practical examples, are important to ensure national consistency and coherence in learners’ access to and engagement with the Curriculum for Wales.
Programmes and their interactions with certificates and qualifications (Chapter 3)
Copy link to Programmes and their interactions with certificates and qualifications (Chapter 3)With learners engaging in qualifications focused on individual subjects and without an overarching upper secondary certificate, Wales has fewer levers to influence the design of learners’ programmes, compared with many of the comparison systems analysed in this report.
While many learners do engage with a common base of subjects in 14-16 education, thanks to custom and school policies, it is possible that learners’ experiences and engagement with the Curriculum for Wales in 14-16 education – through and alongside qualifications – may vary and diverge. While such flexibility can be positive, it may compromise equitable access to pathways for all learners.
In post-16 education, Wales is one of the few systems internationally where most learners have entirely free choice. While there is a vast range of choice in post-16 qualifications, many learners take qualifications below the level recognised in Wales’ qualification framework and internationally for upper secondary completion (Level 3). The focus on subject-focused qualifications and the non-statutory relationship between post-16 education and the Curriculum for Wales risks that the goals and learning ethos of the Curriculum dissipate at this stage, creating a disjointed experience for learners across the full upper secondary phase (14-19).
Learning experiences and pathways across, and within, diverse education institutions (Chapter 4)
Copy link to Learning experiences and pathways across, and within, diverse education institutions (Chapter 4)In Wales, schools and colleges can deliver different combinations of qualifications and subject options for learner specialisation. Internationally, this degree of institutional flexibility is typically accompanied by a more structured approach to programme design, for example through structured qualifications and programmes that define options learners can take. Systems may also require local collaboration across schools and education settings to ensure that the offer in a given locality is balanced and reflects local economic needs.
Participation across the full span of upper secondary education (14-19) is a challenge in Wales. At 15, young people miss school at some of the highest rates across the OECD. The transition at 16 is a vulnerable point for learners in Wales, and enrolment in education falls below the average across the OECD. Taking steps to promote completion across the full phase of upper secondary education should be a policy priority for Wales, for its young people and the country’s economy.
Unlike many OECD countries, Wales does not have a measure of completion that sets out the requirements in terms of the competencies that young people are expected to complete by the end of formal schooling at 18. In the absence of such a measure, many young people in post-16 education study for qualifications below the level recognised for upper secondary completion. Another consequence is that selection into tertiary education dictates performance reporting for general education i.e. the system and society focus on achievement of three A levels (national general qualifications) at A*-C rather than a measure that is accessible for all learners. Creating a nationally relevant and defined measure of completion for upper secondary would support accountability and focus stakeholders to help ensure that all young people develop the skills and knowledge they need by the end of school for fulfilling working lives.
Supporting transitions through and out of upper secondary (Chapter 5)
Copy link to Supporting transitions through and out of upper secondary (Chapter 5)Given the high share of learners progressing to courses and qualifications below the level recognised by Wales’ qualifications framework and the international framework for upper secondary completion (Level 3), Wales should consider how to strengthen pathways with structured options to build basic skills, especially where these are fragile, across the full length of upper secondary education. Wales might explore creating progression pathways which build on the foundations learners have at the point they enter post-16 education, focused on filling gaps and missing knowledge and skills, and creating a pathway towards ‘completion’ of upper secondary education.
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