Trends Shaping Education 2025

This chapter explores opportunities for widespread improvements in health and well-being created by advances in medicine and technology, while highlighting new health challenges brought about by modern life. Disability prevalence is rising in some world regions, driven mostly by an ageing population, and by a rise in mental health-related conditions. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, mental health has risen sharply as a major health concern. Substance addictions that were common in the 20th century are in decline, but others are emerging, e.g., the use of synthetic opioids, and new addictive patterns have surfaced, such as obsessive or compulsive use of digital media. The various links between human, animal and planetary health combine to create global challenges, such as antimicrobial resistance and rising asthma and allergy rates. Emerging health technologies could improve diagnosis and treatment for various health problems, including rising infertility, as well as advance quality of life for those in need of care. New health issues challenge education systems to redefine their role, e.g., in the timely identification and mitigation of health issues that may impact educational experiences, the support they offer to sustain mental health resilience, and the ways in which they foster competencies needed for care work.

As medicine continues to advance and life expectancy rises, modern life presents new health challenges. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, mental health has risen sharply as a major health concern. Today, symptoms of mental distress are more prevalent than they were before the pandemic, and mental health medication consumption is constantly increasing. Global suicide rates continue to decline, though some countries are not doing as well as others. How can education contribute to human flourishing by enhancing mental health and addressing distress among students and staff?

Globally, age-standardised rates of mental disorders remained relatively stable in the decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, though they were consistently higher for women and for people with low socio-economic status. A troubling increase among those under 20 was noted in some high-income countries, especially for girls.1 During the pandemic, population’s mental health fluctuated across OECD countries, but post-pandemic levels of mental ill-health remain elevated. Notably, symptoms of depression and anxiety were more prevalent in 2022 than in 2019, likely due to the combined effects of various crises, such as the cost-of-living crisis, the climate crisis, and geopolitical tensions.2 People also worry about mental health: while men are less concerned than women, it remains the leading health concern for both sexes, with the level of concern rising by 17 percentage points since 2018.3

The consumption of mental health medications has surged in the last decades. Global sales of psychotropic drugs increased, with the largest absolute increases in high-income countries, and in antidepressants. Consumption of medications for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder has also seen a sharp rise in high-income countries. Such trends could reflect improved access to care or diagnosis and declining stigma around mental health, or a lack of other treatment options. Recently, rapid advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) have raised hopes that such technologies could enhance the precision of mental health diagnoses, prognoses, and treatment options.4 Better understanding of neurodiversity, such as ADHD and autism, challenges education systems to adapt learning environments and meet diverse needs. This raises questions about how to best create inclusive settings that support all learners, including those with mental health issues or neurodiversity, and leverage their unique strengths?

While poor mental health is a known risk factor for suicide, global rates of death by suicide are decreasing. The trend downward before the pandemic has continued, on average, through the first two years of the pandemic. However, suicide rates vary almost six-fold between OECD countries, and in some, such as the United States, they have been rising for much of the last two decades, with worrying trends among youth aged 10-24. Deaths by suicide are much higher for men than women, but when examining suicidal intent and behaviour the gender gap is far smaller, and in some areas even reversed.5 Given these trends, how can education enhance learners’ mental health and resilience, and support their sense of purpose?

Substance addictions that were common in the 20th century, such as smoking and alcoholism, are in decline, but new addictions are emerging, such as the increasing use of synthetic opioids. In recent years, other addictive patterns have surfaced, such as obsessive or compulsive use of digital media. Although the growing use of digital devices, the Internet and social media can bring significant benefits, overuse can lead to addictive behaviour with adverse effects. How can education discourage risky behaviour and support positive digital use?

Smoking, a major addictive behaviour of the 20th century and a leading cause of numerous diseases, has seen a significant decline across OECD countries, with an average 23% decrease between 2011 and 2021. This trend has continued through the COVID-19 pandemic in most nations. However, the decline has not been uniform across countries and has often been accompanied by a rise in regular vaping among young people, though overall vaping rates remain low (3.2%). Similarly, alcohol use disorder has declined globally since the early 2000s, though rates in high-income countries have remained relatively stable.6

While drug use disorders have remained relatively stable globally over the past three decades, opioid-related deaths have increased by an average of 20% across the OECD since 2010, driven by the rising consumption of synthetic opioids. The United States, Lithuania, Türkiye, and Canada have seen increases of more than 70%. While both sexes are affected, men have been impacted more significantly. A key trend in illicit synthetic drug markets is the rapid expansion of online platforms, especially on the dark web.7

New addictive behaviours are emerging, especially around digital overuse. While moderate digital use offers many benefits, such as peer interaction, skill development, self-expression and social support, problematic use – excessive and compulsive use of digital media – can negatively affect the user’s life. It is linked to hostility and mental health issues like depression and anxiety, and may manifest in loss of control, withdrawal symptoms, neglect of other activities, reduced sleep, and lower resilience.8

There is no consensus that problematic digital use amounts to addiction, and no major diagnostic system has yet included it as a diagnosable mental health issue, yet scholars note its similarities to other addictive behaviours. The past two decades have seen a rise in problematic digital use – although definitions differ – which worsened dramatically during the pandemic. Features like autoplay and infinite scroll are said to contribute to excessive use. In 2022, over 80% of Americans aged 13–17 reported feeling "addicted" to their smartphones. Although evidence is still inconclusive, concerns are growing over the effects on attention span (coined "TikTok Brain") and the link between increased social media use and worsening mental health among young people. However, distinguishing between healthy and harmful digital use is challenging. The same media content can affect children differently depending on their individual characteristics, such as their social and emotional skills, and on how and why the content is used.9 How can education help learners balance their digital and offline lives?

In an increasingly interconnected world, health challenges form a complex web impacting humans, animals, and the environment. Over the past two decades, the One Health approach has gained importance by recognising the interconnection of natural and human systems, and promoting coordinated action across human and animal health, agrifood systems, and the environment. Plastic waste, asthma, allergies, and antimicrobial resistance are key examples of One Health issues. Can education institutions teach better understanding of socio-environmental challenges? And is education equipped to address rising ill-health among students and staff?

One Health is an integrated, multisectoral approach that seeks to sustainably balance and improve the health of people, animals and ecosystems, recognising them to be closely linked and interdependent. For instance, the presence of plastics in oceans has widespread negative effects on marine ecosystems, human health, animal welfare, and urban infrastructure, including drainage systems. For humans, the risks include ingesting microplastics through contaminated food (e.g., seafood), increased risk of cancer and respiratory diseases from plastics that are unsafely burned or buried, and inhalation of airborne particles and fibres. Alarmingly, the volume of plastic waste entering the world’s oceans rises each year. Only 9% of the growing plastic waste is recycled, while the majority (69%) is landfilled or incinerated, and over a fifth is inadequately disposed of. Although plastic use is highest in OECD countries, most plastic leakage occurs in some developing nations, though improvements have been noted.10 This situation underscores the need for international co-operation on plastic waste management and policies to reduce consumption.

Another interrelated challenge and a looming public health threat is Antimicrobial Resistance – the ability of microbes to resist antimicrobial agents. The consumption of antibiotics both in humans and animals remains high. Despite policy efforts to curb this trend, average sales of antibiotics for human use have increased by nearly 2% since 2000. Consequently, Antimicrobial Resistance is high – one in every five infections is now caused by resistant superbugs. In the absence of stronger One Health action, levels are projected to remain high, claiming many lives and exerting additional pressure on health systems.11

Asthma and allergy are also influenced by the health status of the environment. The global prevalence of allergic diseases including asthma, allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis, and food allergy has been rising for more than 50 years. In the OECD, the increase in asthma has been especially evident among children and youth. Allergy surges are the result of complex gene-environment interactions. Worsening air pollution and climate change as well as lifestyle changes (such as an increase in saturated fats and sugars in the diet, antibiotic use, and a more sterile, urbanised environment) could all increase the likelihood of developing allergies. Air pollutants, such as fine particulates (respirable particles) also raise the odds of developing asthma. While exposure to particulate matter is declining in most OECD countries, it remains above WHO air quality guidelines.12 How can schools best educate about the links between human health and the health of our environment?

On average across OECD countries, people are having children later, or not at all, and fertility rates are falling. These choices are related to labour-market and social changes, the increased educational attainment and empowerment of women, and improved access to contraception, but also to shifting preferences and anxieties about the future. At the same time, more people are turning to fertility treatments. These trends are changing the composition of families and households. Are education systems prepared for the demographic changes underway? And what is their role in supporting the reproductive health and rights of students?

The average total fertility rate across OECD countries has more than halved since 1960, reaching a record low of 1.5 in 2022. This reflects a trend of fewer women having children, with marked increases in childlessness among younger cohorts, and women who do have children are doing so later in life and having fewer ones. Over the past two decades, births among women in their 20s have sharply declined, while rising for those in their 30s and early 40s. Births among adolescent girls have also dropped. Declining fertility is linked to greater access to contraception, higher female educational attainment, and challenges in balancing work and family life. It may also stem from uncertainty about the future, with concerns over climate, economic, housing, and job insecurities influencing social norms and personal preferences. These include investing more time and money in each child or pursuing self-actualisation outside parenthood.13

While having fewer or no children is a choice for some, it’s not the case for everyone. With people starting families later in life, they are more often faced with fertility issues. As a result, the use of assisted reproduction technologies (ART) has steadily grown. ART has also enabled single people and same-sex couples to become parents, contributing to the growing diversity of family structures and households, including unmarried, adoptive, step- and same-sex-parent families. However, millions worldwide still lack access to fertility care.14

Fertility rates correlate with access to contraception. While contraception use has risen globally, significant disparities remain across regions and economic levels. Though the unmet need for family planning is gradually shrinking, a gap persists between women's reproductive intentions and their contraceptive behaviours. Globally, unintended pregnancies have decreased over the past three decades, yet about half remain unplanned. Greater social and economic development, along with gender equality, is strongly associated with fewer unintended pregnancies, and empowering young women has been shown to improve contraceptive use.15 How can education institutions educate about reproductive health and adapt to new demographic trends, including the rise of more diverse family structures?

Approximately one in six people across OECD countries live with a disability. While the rise in disability prevalence in some regions is partly due to an ageing population, there has also been a notable increase among young people, mostly due to a rise in mental health-related conditions. Despite progress in education and employment for people with disabilities, substantial gaps persist, and many continue to face daily challenges. Advances in medicine and technology, including artificial intelligence, offer new opportunities to bridge these gaps. However, inequities threaten to limit access to these benefits. How can education become more inclusive while also fostering broader societal inclusion?

Disabilities can result from a variety of factors, including physical, mental, sensory, or cognitive impairments, and the environmental and social factors that interact with these impairments. Most disabilities are invisible to others. Cross-country comparisons of disability prevalence are challenging due to cultural variations, stigma, and measurement discrepancies. Nonetheless, recent data show that disability prevalence in Europe is rising, driven by an ageing population. A notable rise among young adults was also found, largely due to a rise in mental health-related conditions. Globally, disability rates are higher for women than men, and for those in high-income countries than in low-income ones. This reflects both higher rates of certain health conditions in wealthier nations and under-diagnosis in low-income settings.16

While the employment rate for people with disabilities has improved slightly over the past decade across OECD countries, people with disability face persistent difficulties in the labour market. Important employment gaps remain, with only 40% of people with disabilities having a job on average across OECD countries and many encountering discrimination and inequities in access to public services, education and work. Accelerated by international efforts, many countries have implemented more robust legislation and policies to support the rights and inclusion of persons with disabilities, including in education and work, though at varying rates. Companies are also increasingly investing in inclusive hiring practices.17

Innovations in technology, from assistive devices to accessible public spaces, play a crucial role in breaking down barriers and easing daily challenges for people with disabilities at home and work. These include wearable sensors, automated captioning and translation to plain language, AI-based pattern, object and voice recognition, and voice-controlled devices. AI innovations can also support healthcare professionals in diagnostics and care. Over the past few years, AI systems have tripled their performance in clinical knowledge and accuracy, expanding potential applications in healthcare. AI also has the potential to create more inclusive work environments by addressing various disabilities simultaneously, scaling accessibility faster, and offering personalised, less stigmatised solutions. Accordingly, investors have increased equity funding in healthcare AI.18 However, the digital divide may hinder access for some, and persisting labour-market gaps suggest that people with disabilities are not benefitting from these tools as much as they could. How can education foster inclusive attitudes and ensure it is itself inclusive?

As populations age in OECD countries, the demand for care workers continues to rise. The COVID-19 pandemic has both exposed and worsened longstanding challenges in attracting sufficient staff to the care sector. Similarly, shortages in medical professions have led countries to recruit foreign-trained doctors and nurses. The caring professions are predominantly filled by women, who also spend nearly three times as much time on unpaid care and domestic work compared to men. How can education best develop the socio-emotional competencies needed for care work, and address the gender gap in caregiving?

Care needs will continue to rise as populations age, more individuals require long-term care, and the availability of community-based non-professional caregivers declines. At the same time, many countries face chronic shortages of long-term care workers. Recruitment is challenging, as care work is often characterised by low wages, high physical and mental risks, limited recognition, and non-standard employment (including temporary, part-time, on-call, and agency work). While the share of long-term care workers in total employment increased by 12% over the past decade, this growth has not kept pace with rising demand. In most OECD countries, becoming a personal care worker is relatively accessible. Yet, low qualifications and skills relative to the complex tasks required can jeopardise the quality of care. This underlines the role of education and training systems in expanding the pool of trained carers. Technological advancements, such as AI-enhanced tools for detecting falls, managing medication regimens or voice assistants, can facilitate independent living for older people, reducing the need for constant supervision by carers.19

Over a fifth of long-term care workers across the OECD are foreign-born. Recruiting doctors and nurses from abroad has also become a common solution to address shortages that exist in the medical professions. With one-third of doctors and one-fourth of nurses in OECD countries over the age of 55 in 2023 and nearing retirement, migration to fill these gaps is likely to increase. However, this trend can worsen shortages of quality health resources in countries of origin, highlighting the need for a net increase in health workers.20

Care work is predominantly performed by women. Women also take on 75% of unpaid care and domestic duties globally – work that is typically overlooked in economic measures like GDP. The significant gender gap in unpaid care work has only slightly narrowed over time, reflecting the persistence of social norms assigning men and women separate roles within the household. In OECD countries, women spend an average of 4 hours per day on unpaid work (often coined the ‘second shift’), while men spend 1.9 hours, with the pattern reversed for paid work. More broadly, women’s roles as primary caregivers for both children and the elderly explain why they are more likely than men to work part-time, work from home, work and earn less or retire earlier. While some caregiving aligns with personal preferences, intensive caregiving is linked to negative effects on women’s mental health.21 Can education foster a more equal sharing of care responsibilities and help shift traditional gender roles?

Mental health has become a major concern, often correlating with addictive behaviours or disabilities. Well-being and fertility have been affected by environmental degradation, though occasionally enhanced by innovations. Care-work remains a challenge. Can technology improve, transform or break these trends? What will that mean for education? Can we envision scenarios – alternative futures – and consider them through the eyes of education stakeholders, identifying opportunities and challenges they may face?

The futures below are not predictions but are designed to inspire reflection and guide action in the present.