Pensions at a Glance Asia/Pacific 2024

Life expectancy at birth averaged 73.0 years for men and 78.8 years for women among the Asian economies in 2024 (Figure 3.2). For the OECD the average was 78.8 years for men and 83.8 years for women.

Remaining life expectancy at 65 significantly contributes to well-being at older ages. It also influences the finances of retirement-income systems. Prior to COVID‑19 life expectancy at age 65 in 2020 was 80.3 years for men and 83.7 years for women, on average (OECD, 2022[1]). These are only slightly below the levels that apply in 2024, as men were at 80.9 years and women at 84.0 years for the average across the Asian economies. The highest levels are found in Hong Kong (China) and Singapore for women, at 90.3 years and 88.3 years respectively. For men Hong Kong (China) is again highest at 86.2 years with Singapore at 84.6 years (Figure 3.3). The lowest levels for women are in Pakistan (79.8 years), the Philippines (80.4 years) and Indonesia (80.7 years) with the Philippines (77.6 years), Pakistan (77.9 years) and Indonesia (78.1 years) being lowest for men.

In 2024, on average in the economies, women aged 65 could expect to live an additional 19.0 years, which is forecast to increase to 22.4 years by 2065. Men of the same age could expect to live 15.9 more years in 2024, with a projected increase of 3.6 years by 2065 to reach 19.5 years. On average for the OECD, women aged 65 today could expect to live an additional 21.6 years, which is forecast to increase to 25.3 years by 2065. Men of the same age could expect to live 18.5 more years in 2024, with a projected increase of 4.2 years by 2065 to reach 22.7 years.

There is considerable variation between economies in life expectancy at older ages. Women in Hong Kong (China) are predicted to live another 29.2 years on reaching age 65 in 2065, followed by Singapore (27.3 years). In contrast, remaining life expectancy at 65 in 2065 for women in Pakistan is only forecast to be 16.3 years (Figure 3.4). For men there is less variation between countries than there is for women. Hong Kong (China) and Singapore will have the longest life expectancy at age 65 in 2065 (24.9 and 23.6 years), with China, Malaysia and Thailand all around 21 years. By contrast, Pakistan (13.9 years) and the Philippines (14.8 years) are ranked at the bottom.

The gender gap in life expectancy at age 65 is predicted to be between two and four years in favour of women in nearly all economies in 2065. A larger gender gap of 4.3 years is observed in Hong Kong (China) with smaller gaps of only 1.7 years and 1.9 years in Malaysia and India, respectively. The gender for OECD countries is also forecast to be between almost two and four years in favour of women in 2065. Larger gender gaps of 5.0 and 4.8 years are observed in both Japan and Korea, respectively. The smallest gender gaps are forecasted for New Zealand (1.5 years) the United Kingdom and the United States (both at 1.6 years).

The above numbers refer to period life expectancy, which measures life expectancy (current or projected) based on mortality rates for people of different ages at a given time (2024 or 2065 here) that hence belong to different birth cohorts. By contrast, cohort life expectancy is based on the projected mortality rates that would apply to the same birth cohort at different ages. It thus takes account of continuing improvements (after 2024 or 2065) that would benefit a given birth cohort. On average, these cohort estimates add 0.8 years for women aged 65 in 2065 and 0.7 years for men (Figure 3.4).

Life expectancy is defined as the average number of years that people of a particular age could expect to live if they experienced the age‑ and sex-specific mortality rates prevalent in a given country in a particular year: in this case, 2024 and 2065. Since the determinants of longevity change slowly, life expectancy is best analysed over a long-time horizon.