OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026

Tourism has proven resilient in recent years, reaffirming its role as a driver of economic growth despite rising uncertainty. However, economic and geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in the Middle East, are putting new pressures on the sector, while structural shifts continue to reshape how it is developed, managed and experienced. Flexible, anticipatory and co-ordinated policies are needed for a sustainable, resilient and competitive future.

Strong demand has pushed tourism to record levels in many OECD countries in recent years, reinforcing its economic significance. International tourist arrivals to OECD countries rose by 8.1% to 819.5 million in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, and the sector directly contributed 4.0% of GDP and 19.3% of services exports, while generating extensive upstream spillovers across transport, retail, agriculture and other sectors. Growth continued through 2025 with international arrivals rising by an estimated 3.4%.

Positive momentum was, however, disrupted in early 2026 by the conflict in the Middle East. Travel to the region, and destinations reliant on the Gulf aviation hubs, have been most affected. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding is expected to help restore confidence, but the situation remains fragile, and travel patterns, particularly in the near term, may continue to be shaped by considerations around safety, potential disruptions, and affordability.

Longer term impacts are uncertain. While long-term demand overall remains strong, businesses and destinations need to be prepared to meet challenges and take advantage of opportunities that may emerge from potential shifts in demand. Reinforcing policy frameworks to manage tourism growth and strengthen crisis preparedness will be key, not only to geopolitical shocks but also to increasingly frequent extreme weather-related events and local pressures, to better account for impacts on and benefits to host communities.

Governments are increasingly rethinking tourism development and management, adopting more strategic approaches to balance economic, social and environmental outcomes while strengthening competitiveness and resilience. Concentrated visitor flows are placing pressure on infrastructure and communities in some destinations, while less-visited destinations miss out on tourism benefits. At the same time, rising risks from extreme weather-related events are increasing operational and safety pressures, reshaping tourism demand and creating both challenges and opportunities.

Tourism success is increasingly defined by the sector’s ability to generate sustained economic value through enhanced resilience, environmental sustainability and positive outcomes for local communities. Strategic approaches to manage tourism, supported by governance frameworks designed to improve co-ordination across policy areas and between levels of government are increasingly being adopted, alongside an emphasis on environmental stewardship, community engagement and visitor management.

Digitalisation and advances in artificial intelligence are creating new opportunities to improve tourism management, boost operational efficiency and deliver more personalised experiences. At the same time, governments are strengthening tourism data systems and digital tools to provide more timely, granular and reliable data, making data-driven approaches increasingly central to policy design and implementation.

Translating these strategic shifts into practice requires a stronger enabling environment for tourism businesses. This includes streamlining regulation, improving access to finance, investing in skills, and supporting digital and sustainable transitions. Reliable transport systems remain essential to improving connectivity and the visitor experience, while improving accessibility and participation can deliver wide-reaching benefits for regions and communities.

Against this backdrop, more co-ordinated, flexible and whole-of-government policy approaches are needed to navigate uncertainty, address structural imbalances, harness digital and AI opportunities, accelerate environmental action, and share tourism benefits more widely. Building a more competitive and resilient tourism sector will require targeted investment and stronger policy alignment to support SMEs, modernise infrastructure, improve connectivity, and deliver more sustainable outcomes.

• Strengthen co-ordinated multi-level governance to align national and local action, embedding whole-of-government approaches and empowering destinations within a clear strategic framework.

• Shift to value-based tourism models by prioritising sustainability and resilience, actively managing visitor flows and integrating social and environmental considerations into tourism planning.

• Invest in data, digitalisation and AI to support timely, granular and shared insights that support better destination management and evidence-based decision-making.

• Improve the enabling environment for tourism businesses by reducing regulatory burdens, expanding access to finance and skills, and supporting innovation and digital uptake.

• Strengthen destination governance to align national and destination priorities, empower local communities, and tailor tourism development to the local context, capacity and needs.

• Manage tourism growth to balance benefits and pressures by spreading visitor flows to prepared areas, investing in shared infrastructure and integrating tourism into wider regional development.

• Maximise benefits of tourism for host communities by supporting local businesses, promoting local value creation and encouraging economic diversification through integrated, cross-sector policies.

• Embed risk assessment, early warning systems and crisis response into tourism planning to better anticipate and respond to more frequent and intense extreme weather-related events.

• Promote investment in resilient tourism infrastructure to withstand extreme weather, including nature-based solutions, to reduce vulnerability and strengthen the sector’s long-term resilience.

• Build adaptative capacity of policymakers and businesses by promoting the skills and knowledge needed to assess risks, prioritise actions and implement effective adaptation strategies.