Teacher shortages have exacerbated in recent years across some OECD countries and economies, making it an urgent priority for these education systems. They are influenced by multiple factors shaping supply and demand, including working conditions and salary disparities, as explored further in this chapter. These factors, along with the pressure to meet rising educational demands, exacerbate recruitment and retention issues.

In the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2022, around half of students on average across the OECD where in schools where school principals reported that teacher shortages hinder the school’s capacity to provide instruction. This was a notable increase compared to previous cycles (OECD, 2023[2]). The sharp rise in reported shortages hindering instruction since 2015 underscores the need for robust policy interventions to address the widening gap between teacher supply and demand.

Between 2015 and 2022, the share of students whose principals reported them grew from 29% to 47% on average across the OECD, despite a brief improvement in 2018 (26%). In some countries and economies, the increase has been especially stark. For example, in Poland, virtually no school principals reported a lack of teachers in 2015, but by 2022 this figure had surged to nearly 50%, indicating a rapid deterioration in staffing levels. However, a few countries, such as Iceland and Türkiye, showed stability or improvement from 2015 to 2022 (Figure 1.1).

These shortages appear to have implications for student outcomes. PISA 2022 data reveals that, on average, students in schools where principals reported that teaching staff shortages hindered instruction scored 12 points lower in mathematics. At the same time, the broader PISA 2022 results underscore the need for education systems to transform teaching and learning more profoundly, both to ensure having enough teachers, but also that they are supported to deliver quality education in changing contexts.

Despite significant advances in our understanding of effective teaching practices and continued policy efforts, student performance is declining. In PISA 2022, only 55% of 15-year-olds across OECD countries and economies reached minimum proficiency in reading, mathematics and science – down sharply from 69% in 2015. This concerning trend is widespread, with proficiency rates in mathematics falling in nearly all OECD countries and economies, except in Türkiye (Figure 1.2). Other assessments also reflect this downturn, showing that young learners’ reading performance has declined in many countries and economies (Mullis et al., 2023[3]). These long-term negative trends point to systemic weaknesses in education systems to help teachers and students conduct effective learning processes, making them increasingly vulnerable to shifting global contexts.

If these trends are not addressed and teachers supported for this, societies risk losing out on the economic opportunities presented by the green and digital transitions. Foundational skills such as reading, writing, and mathematics are among the most critical competencies for green jobs, both in established and emerging sectors (OECD, 2024[4]). Furthermore, literacy and numeracy are essential for the basic use of digital technologies, which are increasingly required for participation in the digital economy (International Labour Organisation (ILO), 2021[5]). Teachers and students are at the heart of processes that must be strengthened to help societies seize opportunities and address the challenges presented by new contexts.

Furthermore, despite the extensive efforts that students, teachers, schools and communities have made to close performance gaps, significant disparities persist in student learning outcomes. Even in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship between student performance and socio-economic status has remained relatively stable across OECD countries and economies from PISA 2012 to PISA 2022 for mathematics and science, with only a slight improvement in reading. This was a challenging context where teachers, students and families showed remarkable resilience as they adapted overnight to sometimes fully new learning contexts, such as learning online (OECD, 2020[8]).

But while education systems were able to protect to some extent the most disadvantaged students from the effects of this largely disruptive context, inequities continue to hinder student outcomes. Notably, socio-economic background still accounts for around 16% of the variation in student reading performance during this period (OECD, 2023[2]). Although many countries and economies have been able to reduce both income and educational inequality, an emerging trend shows that several are following an inverse pathway, with growing disparities in one or both areas (Figure 1.3). Efforts need to intensify as education institutions and teachers face the challenge of better supporting different student socio-economic backgrounds and forms of diversity.

The 2022 Ministerial Declaration on Building Equitable Societies Through Education (OECD, 2022[10]), marked a formal commitment by OECD education ministers to empower education professionals and develop policies that promote quality and equity in student learning. Achieving this vision requires bold action to reimagine education systems and support educators. Policymakers, teachers, and institutional leaders must work together to enhance, adopt, or even disrupt current practices to strengthen teaching quality.

For this, education systems must urgently address both immediate and longer-term needs for the teaching profession. On one hand, many OECD countries and economies face a critical imbalance between the supply and demand of teachers across various education levels and sectors, which is eroding the capacity to provide high-quality education. While responding to meet this challenge, education systems facing shortages can also learn from how other education systems are managing to keep the profession attractive despite contexts of change. On the other hand, rapid advances in AI offer a timely opportunity to rethink the teaching profession. For example, as AI continues to reshape the labour market, education has emerged as a high-growth sector, with roles in teaching and institutional leadership projected to increase by 10% between 2023 and 2027 – particularly in vocational and higher education – to meet the rising demand for reskilling and upskilling (World Economic Forum, 2023[11]). Furthermore, by carefully integrating AI into educational practices, teachers' roles can be redefined to focus more on the human-centric and relational aspects of their work, including for stronger pedagogies and collegial work, community engagement and more meaningful interactions with students.

This pivotal moment presents an opportunity to rethink how teachers are supported in their work (Box 1.1) to succeed in rapidly evolving educational landscapes.

Although the scope and severity of teacher shortages vary across systems and levels of education, with some not experiencing them as a strongly hindering issue for teaching and learning, in other education systems they are widely acknowledged as a pressing challenge. Recent evidence suggests that these have worsened over the past years in these education systems and are likely to continue. With this, they now face the dual challenge of attracting new teachers while retaining and supporting current teachers to meet increasingly complex classroom demands.

Data from the EPO Survey 2024 underscore the growing severity of teacher shortages in these contexts, further indicating the pressing need for effective policy responses to close the gap between supply and demand. In England (United Kingdom), the Department for Education reported that teacher vacancies increased by 20% to 2 800 in November 2023, up from 2 300 in November 2022 and more than doubling from the 1 100 vacancies in November 2020 (Department for Education, 2023[13]). Germany expects teacher supply shortages to persist until at least 2030 (Ministry of Education and Cultural Affairs, 2023[14]). In Slovenia, all levels of education are projected to face teacher shortages by 2023 (Slovenian Government, 2023[15]), while Finland anticipates undersupply in vocational education, adult education, and early childhood education and care (ECEC) (Education administration statistical service, n.d.[16]). Similarly, Australia is facing a shortfall of around 21 000 qualified ECEC professionals, with an additional 18 000 needed to meet demand in coming years (Jobs and Skills Australia, 2024[17]).

As noted by one OECD country in the EPO Survey 2024, education systems facing the challenge of teacher shortages cannot solve it solely through better teacher distribution:

“Modelling results show that even if teachers were employed full-time, all teachers had dual qualifications, and effective use was made of teachers' abilities in primary and secondary schools within the same educational institution and nearby schools, there would still be an inadequate residual demand and supply. In rural districts with smaller schools (fewer classes at each level) and long distances between schools, these surpluses become more noticeable.”

As such, having more teachers, and better allocating them while ensuring they are empowered to deliver quality education in changing contexts, is essential.

Data from Education at a Glance 2024 shows that across 21 education systems during the 2022/23 academic year, 9 education systems reported teacher shortages across all subjects in terms of unfilled vacancies, while another 9 faced shortages in specific fields. Greece, Korea and Türkiye were the only countries and economies that did not report major shortages (Figure 1.4). However, even in these education systems, PISA 2022 data indicate that some schools still perceived them to a certain extent.

Moreover, some education systems are facing high turnover rates – driven by resignations and early retirements – leading to shortages across many regions. To address this, education systems facing them must continuously adapt to respond to evolving needs. However, national data can sometimes mask localised teacher shortages, particularly in specialist subjects or hard-to-staff areas. For example, in the United States, some districts report no teacher shortages, while others face significant staffing challenges (OECD, 2023[18]).

According to data from 15 education systems, close to 1 in 10 fully qualified teachers leave each year due to resignations or retirement (OECD, 2024[1]). While most teachers report professional satisfaction, there are persistent issues related to societal recognition and stress, which contribute to teacher attrition. Resignation is the leading cause for teacher attrition in eight countries and economies and other participants, namely Austria, Denmark, Estonia, England (United Kingdom), the Flemish Community of Belgium, Poland, the Slovak Republic, and Sweden (Figure 1.5).

Teacher attrition issues are likely to worsen in the coming years. A 2022 survey by the National Education Union in England revealed that 44% of teachers were planning to leave the profession within five years. In Australia, a 2023 survey found that 31% of government schoolteachers planned to leave before retirement, up from 14% in 2020. Another 41% said that they “possibly” planned to leave the profession (Australian Education Union, 2023[19]). A more recent study also found that more teachers than ever intended to leave the profession before retirement (Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership, 2022[20]).

The consequences of high attrition are well-documented. Frequent turnover disrupts the continuity of student learning, posing barriers to quality teaching and learning (Menzies, 2023[21]). It also adds to recruitment, initial preparation and professional development costs, making it difficult to staff classrooms, particularly in specialist subject areas and in hard-to-staff contexts (Carver-Thomas and Darling-Hammond, 2019[22]). High attrition also affects the capacity of education institutions to support early career teachers and develop future institutional leaders, potentially leading to a vicious circle of further attrition over time.

In recent years, the attrition of early career teachers has posed a challenge for education systems, making it a key area of policy attention (OECD, 2024[23]). In England (United Kingdom), retention rates have improved for early career teachers, although there has been less success among mid-career and experienced teachers (Education Policy Institute, 2022[24]). These improvements have been connected to investments in mentoring and supports for early career teachers, and comparatively less for mid-career teachers.

While not sufficient by itself, ensuring competitive salaries has been seen as an important factor in making the profession attractive throughout a teacher's career. As pointed out by Education at a Glance and other OECD evidence, pay and working conditions are seen as important for attracting, developing and retaining skilled and high-quality teachers. Teachers' salaries, whether considered in absolute terms or relative to other professions, can directly impact how appealing the teaching career is. However, teacher salaries are only one component of attractiveness; additional factors like opportunities for professional growth and collaborative learning, administrative workload, and the societal perception of teachers also play a part (OECD, 2023[18]; OECD, 2024[1]; OECD, 2020[12]).

In 2023, data for lower secondary teachers show that this remains a challenge across many OECD countries and economies. Starting statutory salaries for teachers at this level tend to be lower compared to similarly educated workers in most countries and economies, with Mexico being a notable exception. Figure 1.6 below illustrates the relative competitiveness of statutory salaries for lower secondary teachers across OECD countries and economies, providing insights on the variations in salary progression and how these can possibly impact the attractiveness of the teaching profession over time.

For experienced teachers, salary competitiveness improves in certain contexts. By the time teachers have reached 15 years of experience, at least salary parity with other similarly educated professionals has been achieved in some countries and economies in 2023, such as Australia, Chile, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Korea, and Spain. However, even among these countries and economies, disparities remain when looking at the top end of the salary scale. Korea, Luxembourg, and Mexico are notable examples where teachers' salaries are considerably higher at this stage compared to other similarly educated professions. Moving forward, education systems facing teacher attractiveness issues will need to consider aspects of teacher salary evolution throughout their professional pathways. This will need to be considered though, within the broader picture of factors – such as intellectual or social – that can make teaching and appealing profession.

Retirement is also a significant issue for many education systems, as a large proportion of teachers are nearing retirement age. As pointed out in Figure 1.7, on average, 41% of teachers in OECD countries and economies were aged 50 or older in 2022 at upper secondary level (OECD, 2024[1]). The largest age gaps were observed at the upper secondary level, where the difference between younger and older teachers reached 33 percentage points, compared to 21 percentage points at the primary level and 26 percentage points in lower secondary education.

In seven OECD countries and economies, at least half of the teachers were aged 50 or more at one or more education levels in 2022. Estonia, Greece, Latvia, and Portugal have particularly high proportions of older teachers at both lower and upper secondary education levels. Italy was the only OECD country where over half of the teachers at the primary level were aged 50 or more (57%), while over half of the teachers at the upper secondary level were also aged 50 or more (54%). Similarly, Lithuania was the only education system where this was the case across all school levels (primary, lower secondary, and upper secondary education). In Czechia, this applied for teachers at the upper secondary level.

In contrast, countries and economies such as Türkiye and the United Kingdom have younger teaching forces. In 2022, Türkiye had one of the smaller shares of older teachers among OECD countries and economies across education levels. In the United Kingdom, the share of teachers below the age of 30 exceeded the share of older teachers during the same year at primary and lower secondary education levels (OECD, 2024[1]). Although lower levels of education have a younger workforce, ageing has been more pronounced at lower levels over the last 10 years than in higher ones. Furthermore, trend data show that the average age of the teaching profession has been rising across education levels between 2013 and 2022, except for tertiary education (Figure 1.8)

In addressing these short-term needs, education systems need to consider longer-term transformations that make them resilient and responsive to change. Global megatrends show that addressing teacher shortage also relates to supporting teachers as adaptable lifelong learners.

In an era of rapid technological advancement, the role of skilled teachers has never been more critical. Beyond simply addressing the number of teachers, ensuring that they possess the right skills to adapt to new educational needs is essential for student success. Data from PISA 2022 highlight this importance, showing that 25.4% of students were in schools where principals reported inadequate or poorly qualified staff (Figure 1.9). While this share was smaller than that of schools facing an overall teacher shortage (Figure 1.1), the impact on student performance is more pronounced. In schools with inadequate teaching staff, students experienced a decline of 14 points in performance, compared to a 12-point decline in schools facing teacher shortages generally (12 points) (OECD, 2023[2]).

Despite previous improvements made on average across the OECD, a larger share of students in PISA 2022 were in schools where school principals reported that inadequate or poorly qualified staff hinder instruction in 2022. The average rate among OECD countries and economies initially decreased from 20.9% in 2015 to 15.7% in 2018, before rising again to 25.4% in 2022. Although the starting point may differ largely, certain countries and regions, notably Estonia, Hong Kong (China), Poland, Belgium, and Ireland, experienced substantial increases, with rises of over 17% from 2015 to 2022.

Looking ahead, as schools increasingly integrate technology, policies aimed at developing teachers' skills and professional agency are crucial in empowering them to meet the demands of modern classrooms. By focusing on building teachers' capacity to navigate and utilise technology effectively, policymakers can support teachers in fostering high-quality, adaptable learning environments.

As such, alongside strengthening teachers’ use of foundational pedagogies, education systems must objectively and dispassionately evaluate how best to integrate technology into teaching practices to enhance effective teaching and learning. Despite large financial investment, digital technology is not transforming teaching and learning at scale. Data from PISA 2022 indicate that while a short amount of time spent on digital devices for learning in school per day can enhance student performance, additional time beyond the first hour is typically associated with a decline in performance. According to students’ reports, the average time spent learning via digital devices per school day exceeds one hour in all OECD education systems, with an average of two hours (OECD, 2023[2]). As such, 21 OECD education systems saw an overall negative association between an increase in time spent on digital devices for learning in school and mathematics performance, with an OECD average decline of 2 score points for each additional hour per day (Figure 1.10).

The failure of education systems to help teachers fully capitalise on the pedagogical opportunities that technology can offer to deliver better outcomes in foundational skills is not simply about a lack of resources and teacher capacity. In 2022, around one-in-five 15-year-olds across the OECD had principals reporting that a lack of or inadequate digital resources hindered their school’s capacity to provide instruction; only around one-in-ten had principals that felt teachers in their school did not have the necessary technical and pedagogical skills (OECD, 2023[2]). In the majority of OECD classrooms, therefore, digital technologies are available and are being used. Although there may be pockets of innovative practice through which technologies enhance outcomes, at system level they appear to be either further entrenching traditional pedagogies or changing practice for the worse. Therefore, moving forward, it is crucial for education systems to invest in a more systematic study and evaluation of instructional policies and practices, including the role of technology. This deeper understanding will enable education systems to more effectively harness the benefits that emerging technologies can bring to teaching and learning processes.

The picture is similarly concerning with regards to equity: a range of student and school characteristics have an important mediating effect on the capacity to reap the benefit of technological change (Figure 1.11). In half of the countries and economies and economies participating in PISA 2022, principals in disadvantaged schools were more likely than those in advantaged schools to report inadequate or poor-quality digital resources. In one-quarter of them, rural schools suffered more from such shortages than urban schools (OECD, 2023[2]). Furthermore, on average across OECD countries and economies, socio-economically advantaged students were more confident than disadvantaged students in learning autonomously and remotely, if schools have to close in the future. These differences hold even after accounting for student performance in mathematics (OECD, 2023[2]).

It is perhaps no surprise then that there is some emerging hesitation about the role digital technologies should play in formal education. In the EPO Survey 2024, education systems expressed concern about a lack of evidence on the effectiveness, impact and safety of rapidly evolving technologies (OECD, 2024[23]). This is indicative of a wider growing caution around digital education in some countries and economies, with efforts to reduce or better regulate related interactions in formal learning environments, particularly among younger children (Swedish Ministry of Education and Research, 2024[26]; Norwegian Directorate of Education, 2024[27]). Some countries and economies have also begun to introduce legal measures to control the use of personal devices in schools and undertaken litigation regarding the improper use of student data by technology companies via digital resources used in schools (Global Education Monitoring Report Team, 2023[28]; Campbell et al., 2024[29]).

The integration of digital technologies in education is therefore approaching a critical juncture. In the coming years, efforts to incorporate AI into teaching and learning must avoid repeating past mistakes. It is essential that decisions about adopting digital technologies in the classroom consider both their educational value and broader cost-benefit implications. At the same time, steps must be taken to ensure that education systems, students, and teachers can fully harness the opportunities technology offers for enhancing learning and closing equity gaps, if managed effectively.

What long-term trends are going to affect governments’ capacity to attract, retain and nurture teachers so they can effectively support student learning in education systems? The EPO Survey 2024 identified the global megatrends that ministries believe will have the greatest impact on the teaching profession between 2025 and 2030. Of the nine megatrends included in the survey, three stood out as most critical for education ministries: Demographic shifts, digitalisation, and rising inequalities (Figure 1.12).

While offering opportunities for the profession, these trends are sometimes also making it harder for education ministries to balance teacher supply and demand, worsening shortages in many regions. Policymakers therefore need to take them into account as they define new policy actions.

Over 30 education systems recognised these as key drivers:

The prioritisation of these megatrends varied significantly across education systems. While these trends are global in scope, their implications for the teaching profession differ depending on national and subnational contexts. Among the 32 education systems surveyed, only Lithuania and Slovenia rated all 3 megatrends (digitalisation, demography, and equality) as being of very high importance. Eight other ministries identified at least two of these as top priorities.

This can help explain the relatively lower importance attributed to other trends, such as Disaster management and risk reduction and International conflict, security, and development co-operation. These trends may be of high priority in specific countries and economies or regions, but are not seen as having widespread implications for the teaching profession across the OECD as a whole.

At the same time, there is a noticeable gap between the importance attributed to certain global megatrends and the extent to which ministries are actively addressing them (Figure 1.13). For example, while demographic change was the top-ranked megatrend, a 40-percentage point gap exists between the perceived importance of this trend and the reported actions being taken by ministries. This suggests that demographic change, despite being widely recognised as critical, has only recently emerged as a major concern requiring urgent policy attention.

In contrast, there is strong alignment on digitalisation. Approximately 88% of education systems identified digitalisation as a high or very high priority, and 84% reported that their policies and practices are already addressing this trend to a large or very large extent.

The perceptions of education ministries regarding the potential impact of global megatrends on the teaching profession are consistent with wider international evidence on trends and risks for 2030 and 2050. Digitalisation, in particular, stands out as a major trend, underscoring the need to empower teachers as informed users of digital technologies and AI while fostering critical thinking among students. This emphasis on digitalisation aligns with broader concerns in education: in 2023, 77% of surveyed ministries identified digitalisation as a key priority for education systems over the next 5-15 years (OECD, 2023[30]). AI presents opportunities to support teachers in their daily tasks, but careful policy design is essential to ensure that technology complements rather than replaces high-quality teaching practices.

Demographic Change has also emerged as a significant concern (World Economic Forum, 2024[31]; European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, 2024[32]; Roland Berger, 2023[33]). In contrast, in 2023, only 11% of ministries considered demographic change to have a major impact on education systems in the next 5-15 years (OECD, 2023[30]). Although the survey data are not directly comparable, recent events in 2024 appear to have elevated demographic change as a critical priority.

However, while environmental sustainability was not highlighted as a top megatrend in the EPO Survey 2024, it is increasingly recognised in international cross-sectoral analyses. Teaching cannot be disconnected from the issue of sustainability. At the individual level, climate change will disrupt teaching conditions, affecting both education continuity and physical learning environments. Teachers also play a critical role in empowering learners and communities to become agents of change for sustainable development across education levels (OECD, 2023[30]). At a systemic level, teachers will be vital in promoting awareness and fostering the success of green transition policies.

These global megatrends will significantly influence teacher shortages, as education systems face new demands in digital skills for green economies in contexts of demographic change.

More specifically, demographic change and digitalisation are expected to have considerable influence in education systems’ capacity to attract, retain and nurture quality teachers over the next few years to come. Some highlights of challenges and opportunities that emerge for education systems through these forces to better support the teaching profession are included below.

Demographic change calls for deeply rethinking teacher supply and demand. OECD countries and economies are experiencing unprecedented demographic shifts, which include:

• Population ageing and low fertility: By 2030, 25% of the population will be aged 65 or older on OECD average, up from 18% in 2021 (OECD, 2022[34]; OECD, 2024[35]). At the same time, fertility rates continue to decline, falling from 3.3 children per woman in 1960 to 1.5 in 2022. With countries and economies like Korea, Italy, and Greece experiencing the lowest birth rates, many OECD countries and economies now report fertility rates well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, with this trend expected to persist through 2030 (OECD, 2024[36]; OECD, 2024[37]).

• Migration and urbanisation as modifying factors: With a 26% increase in permanent-type migration in 2022 compared to 2021, OECD countries and economies have experienced record levels of permanent migration, driven by humanitarian and labour needs (OECD, 2023[38]). However, migration alone will not fully offset low birth rates and ageing populations, particularly in rural areas, where population decline may necessitate school closures (OECD, 2024[37]).

• Urbanisation: Urban populations are expected to continue to grow due to migration and natural population increases (OECD, 2024[39]). The share of the population in metropolitan regions will rise from 66% to 67% by 2040, while rural regions will experience declines (OECD, 2022[34]). This shift necessitates strategic resource planning to avoid widening urban-rural disparities in education.

These developments are expected to have considerable impact on teacher supply, demand, and teacher workforce dynamics. The “low fertility future” requires education systems to re-evaluate resources for smaller student populations and address workforce demand flexibly. For instance, smaller cohorts offer opportunities for more personalised learning, where smaller classes facilitate high-impact pedagogies like student-centred teaching and peer collaboration (Blatchford and Russel, 2020[40]). Conversely, as lifelong learning demand rises outside compulsory education, education systems must also adapt to support lifelong skill development across age groups (World Economic Forum, 2023[11]).

Demographic change also intensifies challenges within the teacher workforce. As explained earlier in this chapter, the share of teaches aged 50 or older has grown over the past decade. Having an aged teacher population can bring several benefits, as a knowledge intensive profession (André, Gal and Schief, 2024[41]). At the same time, an older workforce may lead to “habit rigidity,” where established teaching routines increase efficiency but may limit adaptability to diverse student needs (Chartered College of Teaching, 2019[42]). Evidence also suggests that the use of digital technologies decreases with teacher age, necessitating additional support for older teachers to engage effectively with new tools (OECD, 2023[43]; OECD, 2019[44]). Furthermore, lower willingness among older workers to switch jobs may also lead to stagnating practice at an institutional level (André, Gal and Schief, 2024[41]). In early childhood education, where physical demands are high, an ageing workforce may further increase turnover, exacerbating retention challenges in many OECD countries and economies (Kwon et al., 2020[45]).

In the EPO Survey 2024, ministries noted varying national impacts of demographic change on teacher supply. For instance, Poland anticipates reduced teacher demand due to shrinking student numbers, while Croatia and the Netherlands report ongoing challenges in attracting and retaining teachers amidst an ageing workforce. Slovenia also highlighted the challenges of matching teacher supply and demand as older teachers retire and fewer new educators enter the profession. Ministries also highlighted concerns about declining populations leading to the closure of schools, for example, in rural areas, where this is expected to be particularly severe. The consolidation of institutional networks typically impacts higher levels of education as older students can travel more easily and as the cost of resourcing larger, more specialised institutions is greater (OECD, 2024[23]).

Effective performance management, flexible work-retirement transitions, and enhanced working conditions will be essential to maintain productivity in an ageing teacher workforce. By promoting flexible career paths and continuous professional development, systems can leverage the experience of older teachers while sustaining an adaptive, responsive educational network.

The demographic shifts across OECD countries and economies, with their long-term and largely irreversible nature, demand a proactive approach from policymakers. Key opportunities include fostering a lifelong learning society, leveraging multi-generational teams, and enhancing personalised learning. However, addressing workforce ageing, urban-rural disparities, and balancing migration’s contributions will require coordinated, data-informed strategies to support resilient education systems in the face of demographic change (Table 1.1).

Digitalisation and AI remain an unrealised pedagogical promise. The use of AI in education offers transformative potential but also introduces significant challenges and uncertainties for the teaching profession. Key opportunities include personalised learning, enhanced inclusivity, and administrative efficiencies that can enable teachers to focus more on pedagogy. AI-enhanced tools, such as learning analytics and intelligent tutoring systems, can support digital infrastructure across educational institutions, facilitating daily operations and interoperability for smoother information exchange. AI-driven automation of routine tasks can further free teachers to concentrate on pedagogical activities, enhancing decision-making at both classroom and institutional levels (Varsik and Vosberg, 2024[46]). Additionally, AI tools can support adaptive learning and real-time analytics, providing accessible solutions for students with specific needs (OECD, 2023[18]).

Yet, challenges persist, including equitable access, privacy protection, and mitigating biases (OECD, 2023[18]). For example, historical and representation biases can perpetuate inequalities in teaching and learning. Measurement and aggregation biases risk overlooking diverse needs, while evaluation bias may lead to inaccuracies when non-representative samples are used (Varsik and Vosberg, 2024[46]). Early recognition of these biases is key for implementing fair and effective AI solutions.

Ministries participating in the EPO Survey 2024 assessed the opportunities and challenges of AI in teaching. They recognised digital technologies' potential to improve teaching methods, workflows, and work environments. They also stressed promoting technology’s pedagogical use and fostering critical thinking in students when consuming media. Participants, including Mexico and Lithuania, highlighted the importance of understanding teachers’ evolving roles in the context of digitalisation for developing learners' digital skills. Additionally, participants like Slovenia raised concerns over limited evidence on the effectiveness, impact, and safety of rapidly evolving technologies (OECD, 2024[23]).

To navigate these opportunities and challenges, AI must align with pedagogical goals, enabling teachers to benefit while preserving professional agency and student engagement (OECD, 2023[18]) (Table 1.1). Governments should also foster collaborative partnerships among educators, researchers, and EdTech developers. Dialogue with technological and social actors is essential to anticipate changes, assess implications for teaching, and identify biases in the design, implementation, and monitoring of AI tools.

Engaging teachers and technology leaders as co-researchers, co-developers, and co-evaluators is crucial for this. In addition, governments must regulate digital development wisely, protecting learners’ and educators’ rights while avoiding overly restrictive actions (World Economic Forum, 2024[31]). Teachers require support to use digital technologies effectively, enhance foundational skills for all, and exploring new pedagogies aligned with education systems' core goals.

In summary, teacher shortages represent an urgent and growing challenge across OECD countries and economies, driven by a complex mix of factors. These include implications from global megatrends such as the challenges posed by demographic change and digitalisation, as well as difficult working conditions, low salary competitiveness, and increased pressures on education systems. Data from the OECD reveals a significant rise in unfilled vacancies and in the percentage of students whose school principals report that shortages are impacting the quality of instruction. These shortages are not just a local issue but are affecting student performance.

While some countries and economies have managed to maintain stability or improvement, many face worsening shortages that demand immediate policy interventions to address both teacher supply and retention. These trends underscore the need for comprehensive, long-term solutions to ensure education systems can meet current and future demands.

The global megatrends mentioned above present education systems with two key challenges, as previously explored: having enough teachers in times of shortages, which might be prioritised as urgent, and having quality teachers in times of technological change, which is an important priority. However, policymaking to address teacher shortages involves trade-offs and inherent risks. As global, national, and local factors continuously shape these mismatches between supply and demand, enhancing teaching practices becomes critical to improving education outcomes. At the same time, education systems must adapt to evolving challenges. Two significant risks stand out as policymakers plan to address teacher shortages in the coming years:

• Prioritising quantity over quality. While meeting the urgent need for more teachers, focusing only on recruitment risks neglecting teaching quality. If education systems emphasise filling positions without improving teaching standards, they may face stagnation or even a decline in overall education quality, particularly in sectors experiencing acute shortages such as schools and vocational education.

• Creating long-term issues through short-term fixes. The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread recognition of teachers' societal value. However, this appreciation has diminished as temporary employment practices, reduced professional autonomy, and declining teacher well-being have become more common (United Nations Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on the Teaching Profession, 2024[47]). These issues hinder efforts to attract and retain qualified teachers. Higher education faces additional challenges, including contractual precarity and the increasing politicisation of academic freedom, which further obstruct efforts to enhance teaching quality (OECD, 2024[48]).

Quick fixes, such as lowering entry standards, might address immediate shortages, but they can jeopardise long-term efforts to develop a skilled teaching workforce. Such measures often result in teachers being placed in positions where they lack the necessary expertise, undermining both teacher retention and education quality. Education systems need a strategic approach that addresses both immediate teacher shortages and long-term workforce sustainability. Policies must focus not only on recruiting more teachers but also on enhancing the overall quality of teaching. Rethinking the status and societal value of the teaching profession is essential to ensure that teachers are supported to navigate evolving challenges.

Figure 1.14 presents a comprehensive roadmap for addressing teacher shortages in a rapidly changing educational landscape, which is explored in this report. The roadmap highlights that simply increasing the number of teachers or assigning them to areas of need is not sufficient. It underscores the importance of ensuring that teachers are equipped to manage the evolving challenges driven by global megatrends such as demographic shifts, digitalisation and rising inequalities.

The figure outlines key factors influencing both the supply and demand for teachers, illustrating how professional prestige, relative salaries, working conditions, and initial preparation and professional development structures affect the attractiveness of the profession. On the demand side, it shows how elements such as school organisation, class sizes, attrition, and modes of delivery (including hybrid and digital learning) shape the need for qualified teachers.

This roadmap provides policymakers with concrete steps for policymakers to address both teacher supply and demand while improving teaching quality. It offers a clear framework to balance short-term recruitment with long-term workforce development. The roadmap also showcases relevant policy responses currently being implemented across education systems participating in the EPO Survey 2024. Additional insights have been identified through countries and economies’ participation in the activities conducted by the Education Policy Outlook and the OECD Secretariat’s desk-based research. The roadmap is explored more in detail in the next chapters of this report as follows:

While the report primarily focuses on school-level policy developments, it also includes examples from other education levels. Additionally, policy spotlights and in-depth analyses of recent country-level initiatives are provided to further illuminate best practices.

[41] André, C., P. Gal and M. Schief (2024), “Enhancing productivity and growth in an ageing society: Key mechanisms and policy options”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1807, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/605b0787-en.

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