Trends Shaping Education 2025

Trends Shaping Education is a triennial report examining major economic, political, social, technological and environmental trends affecting education. This report is designed to give policy makers, researchers, educational leaders, administrators, and teachers a robust, non-specialist source of international comparative trends shaping education, whether in early childhood education and care, schools, vocational education and training, higher education or lifelong learning programmes. While the trends are robust, the questions raised in this report are more suggestive – they aim to stimulate creativity in reflecting on the challenges facing education and encourage strategic foresight and action today.

The 2025 edition is organised in four chapters moving from the more global to the more personal. It starts off with a geopolitical perspective on trends (global conflict and co-operation), before zooming into economic and social concerns (work and progress), exploring political and cultural trends (voices and storytelling), and concluding with a chapter on the essence of what we are (bodies and minds). Figure 1.1 provides a visual overview of the chapters and sub-chapters.

Chapter 2, Global Conflict and Co-operation, highlights how the recent rise in global conflict and geopolitical tensions is straining public spending, with security and defence budgets expanding at the expense of other priorities, such as education. These conflicts have lasting impacts on the mental health and well-being of students and educators and disrupt the continuity of educational services. They also raise questions about the role of education in building a more peaceful world. Increased migration driven by conflict and climate change brings political and social complexities, requiring education systems to work alongside other public sectors to contribute to social cohesion and support newcomers in acquiring the skills to participate fully in society.

Global trade dynamics are also shifting, with a slowdown in trade growth and an increase in trade restrictions due to geopolitical tensions. Energy security is critical, with recent crises highlighting the need for resilient energy systems and investment in clean energy. Scientific and technological breakthroughs can contribute to addressing a range of global social, economic, and environmental challenges, but they rely on international exchange of knowledge, resources, and talent. Yet, shifting geopolitical dynamics challenge international research collaboration, requiring a balance between research security and open scientific co-operation. Education can play a key role in fostering ethical frameworks and skills to ensure that scientific advances benefit both humanity and the planet.

Chapter 3, Work and Progress, explores how global labour markets are transforming due to technological advancements and sustainability imperatives. The demand for green jobs is rising, but a skills mismatch could slow the transition and disrupt local labour markets. Similarly, the spread of new technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) is set to automate many tasks and create new ones, requiring different skill sets. The rise of remote work and digital technologies is reshaping personal and professional lives, while the urgent need to address climate change calls for education to promote sustainable living and responsible consumption, while helping learners to situate such actions with broader sectoral and systems changes.

Rapid societal transformations bring opportunities but also risk exacerbating existing inequalities. Low and middle incomes have been rising at slower rates than higher incomes, the ongoing cost-of-living crisis has hit young people particularly hard, and gender equality in the world of work presents a mixed picture of progress and setbacks. At the same time, technological advancements are redefining the very nature of work and social interactions. For education systems, these rapid changes raise questions of how to best support resilience and agility among all learners, supporting people in their quest for flexibility and self-actualisation while ensuring that they are equipped to navigate dynamic and uncertain labour markets.

Chapter 4, Voices and Storytelling, focuses on whose voices are heard and whose stories are told in our increasingly digital and globalised world. Democracies worldwide have seen a decline in voter turnout, particularly among younger voters, reflecting growing dissatisfaction with traditional political processes. However, the increase in protests on issues such as economic justice, climate change, and civil rights shows that young people are not apathetic but rather seek different forms of expression. Movements like #MeToo and Black Lives Matter have amplified discussions about whose perspectives are heeded and whose are marginalised, challenging historical imbalances. Education can empower individuals and communities to address issues they care about and promote active citizenship.

The rise of populism and polarisation highlights the need for education to promote social cohesion and critical thinking, while the spread of disinformation and the decline in press freedom show the importance of media literacy and responsible digital citizenship. Digital technologies and globalised cultural industries have raised concerns about the survival of local identities. But there are also signs that digitalisation is fostering linguistic diversity and empowering local cultural expressions, as well as supporting various forms of self-expression, with more people becoming influencers, podcasters, and self-published authors. The ubiquity of connected devices and the growing role of the Internet of Things (IoT) in everyday life also raise new opportunities and challenges for education.

Chapter 5, Bodies and Minds, explores the intricate connections between physical and mental health, environmental factors, and societal changes. Mental health has become a top health concern globally, with symptoms of mental distress more prevalent now than before the COVID-19 pandemic. While rates of daily smoking and alcoholism have gone down, recent years have seen persistent challenges of substance abuse and the emergence of new addictive patterns, particularly those related to digital media use. Addressing the broader context of health and well-being, the chapter highlights the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health. Issues like plastic waste, antimicrobial resistance, and rising asthma and allergy rates underscore the need for coordinated action. Education can promote environmental protection and develop strategies to address rising health issues among students and staff.

The chapter also delves into new forms of treatments and care. Advances in medicine and technology, including AI, offer new opportunities to support people with disabilities and chronic health conditions, and can be leveraged for greater educational inclusivity. Advances in assisted reproduction technologies and emerging fertility technologies are enabling single people and same-sex couples to become parents, contributing to a growing diversity of family and household structures. While technology can help, human relationships remain at the core of caring for others. Education can help advance socio-emotional competencies, relevant skills for caregiving and attitudinal changes required to address the gender care gap.

In addition to its main chapters, two major themes are woven throughout the report rather than addressed in their own dedicated chapters – advancements in technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), and considerations about environmental sustainability. This reflects how interactions with technology and sustainability questions are now embedded in all aspects of our lives and can hardly be considered in isolation.

Inequality is also addressed as a cross-cutting theme. Global trends can typically only offer a snapshot of a situation, masking significant differences across various socio-demographic groups. While advances have been made globally in addressing inequalities related to poverty, gender, sexual orientation, age, minority status, disability and chronic health conditions, progress is often fragile, and vulnerable groups are hit the hardest by sudden shocks and crises. The trend data also shows that progress in on equality dimensions is rarely linear. Often, societies may advance equality in one area, only to fall backwards in another. Inequalities threaten social cohesion and deepen fragmentation and polarisation – therefore they require special attention in futures thinking.

The following sub-sections crystallise the three dominant cross-cutting themes that emerged throughout the analysis in this report.

Technological advancements are rapidly transforming most aspects of our lives, including education and the workforce. Frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT) and virtual reality (VR) are developing rapidly, offering solutions to global challenges like climate change, food security and public health. These innovations are already changing how we work, learn and communicate. The chapters provide insights into how AI and other technologies are reshaping the educational landscape.

• AI in the workforce: The integration of AI and other advanced technologies is reshaping the labour market, automating many tasks, and creating new ones that require different skill sets. AI is also expanding the capacity of robots to work with humans in different fields, meaning that more of us will work collaboratively with intelligent machines in the years to come. How can education systems ensure individuals are prepared for the jobs of the future and foster lifelong learning to keep pace with technological advancements?

• AI in education: AI has the potential to revolutionise education itself by providing personalised learning experiences, automating administrative tasks, and supporting teachers in identifying students’ needs. Immersive technologies like VR are already commonly used to teach technical skills in areas like medicine and are also being explored for developing softer skills like empathy. However, the implementation of these technologies in education also raises concerns about data privacy, equity, and the potential for bias. How can education systems leverage AI and other frontier technologies to enhance learning while addressing these ethical and practical challenges?

• Digital literacy and responsible use: As digital technologies become more pervasive, there is a growing need for digital literacy to navigate the complexities of the digital world. This includes understanding how to use AI responsibly and ethically. How can education best equip students with the skills to critically evaluate digital content, protect their privacy, and use technology in ways that enhance their learning and well-being? How can curricula be designed to integrate digital literacy and promote responsible use?

• Health and well-being: Advances in AI and technology offer new opportunities to support health and well-being. AI can enhance the precision of mental health diagnoses and treatment options, while VR aids in managing phobias, anxiety, and social isolation. Assistive technologies also provide valuable support to individuals with disabilities and chronic health conditions. Education systems can leverage these technologies to provide comprehensive support for students and staff. How can schools ensure that AI and other technologies are used to promote health and well-being, while addressing emerging mental health challenges related to excessive use of digital devices?

• Equity and access: The digital divide remains a significant barrier to the equitable use of AI and technology. Ensuring that all students have access to the necessary tools and resources is crucial for fostering an inclusive educational environment. How can education systems address the digital divide and ensure that the benefits of AI and technology extend to all learners?

The planetary crises of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution intersect with education in various ways: education and training systems are both vulnerable to the impacts of socio-ecological emergencies, and crucial in shaping behaviours, collective action and skills that can support sustainable societies and greening economies. The chapters highlight several key areas where sustainability presents both challenges and opportunities for educational systems.

• The most global of all challenges: Global socio-ecological challenges such as climate change threaten the stability of economies and societies worldwide, highlighting the importance of international co-operation. Can education foster understanding of the global, regional and local dimensions of these challenges and contribute to a more sustainable future?

• Green jobs and skills: The transition to greener economies and clean energy is essential for achieving climate targets. However, there is a skills mismatch that could slow this transition. How can education systems best support the development of relevant skills and help people transition out of polluting sectors to ensure that no one is left behind?

• Sustainable consumption: Changing patterns of production and consumption are essential to all pathways to net-zero carbon emission. Can education influence both individual and collective change by promoting environmental literacy and sustainable practices while highlighting historical imbalances and allowing for different values and world views?

• Advocacy and activism: Changing forms of political participation and cultural expression pave the way for new formats of climate activism and advocacy, while the rise of disinformation and political polarisation are threatening constructive debate. How can education foster trust in democratic institutions and responsible citizenship to help societies address complex, systemic challenges?

• One Health approach: The interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health underscores the importance of a holistic approach to sustainability. Can education foster understanding of One Health challenges and promote coordinated action across different sectors?

Social and economic inequality affect educational outcomes and social cohesion. When gaps in life experiences and outcomes between different groups widen, people may increasingly see themselves as part of distinct, often competing, factions. Fragmentation and polarisation can manifest itself in various ways, including more segregated communities and separate communication channels, limiting opportunities for interaction and understanding between different groups. The chapters explore how these challenges affect education and the ways in which education policies can contribute to mitigating them, alongside the broader cross-sectoral policies needed to target the root causes of inequality.

• Migration: Conflicts and economic pressures drive migration, which can exacerbate social and economic inequalities. How can education systems support the inclusion of newcomers in national education systems and promote appreciation for diversity among the host population?

• Income inequality: Rising within-country economic inequalities impact social cohesion and stability. Can education mitigate these inequalities by fostering social responsibility and improving life chances for students from lower socio-economic backgrounds?

• Challenges for youth: Younger generations are experiencing higher levels of mental distress, partly due to economic pressures and societal changes. Can education help young people navigate these challenges and foster inter-generational mobility, solidarity and cohesion?

• Gender inequality: Gender gaps in workforce participation and unpaid care work remain significant. Can education shift traditional gender roles and promote equality by empowering all students to follow their aspirations regardless of gender and fostering socio-emotional competencies among all?

• Political polarisation: The rise of populist movements and political polarisation has deepened social divides, creating challenges for democratic engagement and civic education. Can schools help mitigate the effects of polarisation and cultivate responsible and engaged citizens?

The future is not set in stone - endless possibilities await. Beyond a consideration of current trends, this report is designed to support futures thinking and strategic foresight efforts, adaptable to diverse contexts. Strategic foresight involves the structured consideration of ideas about the future to make better decisions in the present. At the end of each chapter, the report encourages readers to think about alternative futures and their implications for education. These efforts can help readers navigate uncertainty, prepare for disruptions, and, crucially, act to shape the future. They also allow readers to reflect on what a desired future might look like, and what steps might be taken to get there.

This section gives an overview of the futures thinking tools developed throughout the main chapters and offers ideas to adapt these to the specific context and concerns of your education system.

A first step in practising futures thinking is to explore a range of potential developments (possible, probable, plausible, or preferable futures), and to identify drivers of change, large and small. From there, we can consider the implications of each future for specific domains such as education. Strategic foresight practitioners have developed various approaches to performing these tasks.

This edition presents imaginary future scenarios, exploring how the world and education could look in 2040 if one or more of the trends continue or change course. These scenarios are not intended to be a “study of the future” - their value lies primarily in the critical thinking, creativity and dialogue that is generated through their use. The three scenarios presented at the end of each chapter are constructed according to three archetypes:

• Continuation scenarios assume that current trends continue in the same direction and pace. These scenarios might be less surprising, but nonetheless require us to think of their implications. They also invite us to consider how current trends may interact with each other, as they continue.

However, since developments are rarely a linear continuation of the past, we are called upon to contemplate other types of futures:

• Transformation scenarios assume some transformative force has brought about significant changes. These forces could be technological, ecological, social, or other, and could have positive or negative consequences.

• Collapse scenarios assume a breakdown of a dramatic magnitude in one or more aspects (e.g., technological, ecological, social, economic), leading to a drastically different, failed world.

The scenario archetypes were inspired by those proposed by scholars in the field of strategic foresight (see Futures thinking resources section). The scenarios developed in this report serve as examples; they are not predictions, and they focus on some trends more than on others. We invite readers to form new archetypes or variations on those described. Choice is an integral part of constructing a scenario: for example, which trends do we emphasise in a continuation scenario? What type of transformation or collapse do we propose? Being conscious about these choices supports a systematic approach to futures thinking.

The scenarios at the end of each chapter are paired with fictional stakeholder narratives, taking the perspective of key actors in education, and highlighting the opportunities, challenges, and tensions they face in a specific future. These stories are intended to inspire readers to consider the implications of alternative futures for actual people, and how impacts differ for different education stakeholders (e.g., Daniel, a school teacher; Leon, a primary-school student; Gabriel, a parent; or Priya, a policy maker). The stakeholders vary not only in the roles and functions they perform within education but also represent different socio-demographic background characteristics that may influence their educational experience.

By presenting a small selection of personas, we encourage you to think of relevant stakeholders in your context. Just as the scenarios, the stakeholder stories are not predictions; rather, they are intended to spark reflection on the implications of different possible futures and guide action in the present. The questions at the end of the scenario sections help kick-start these reflections. They also offer guidance in thinking about desired futures:

• Which elements in the scenarios are most desirable and what changes are needed in education now to move towards them?

• Which elements in the scenarios are least desirable and what changes are needed in education now to prevent them?

• What futures do you aspire to, and what policies, strategies or approaches are needed in the present to shape them, while avoiding those that are less desirable?

• What are possible implications of these futures for different stakeholder groups and what adaptations are necessary to foster equal opportunities?

We invite readers to explore the scenarios, stakeholder narratives and reflection questions in an engaged manner, and as a basis for discussions on the future of education in your system. Involving a range of education stakeholders in these discussions helps to bring together different perspectives and explore creative ideas about the future, what needs to be done to prepare for it and how to shape it.

To perform your own scenario building exercise based on the trends and archetypes in this report, you can select an archetype and decide on a time frame (e.g., 10 or 20 years) and then use data on current trends, signals, and drivers to imagine how they might evolve under the archetype. Ensure your scenario is plausible, logically consistent, and addresses multiple trends or issues. We encourage you to be deliberate, challenge assumptions, and avoid bias. Give your scenario a compelling title that reflects its key themes.

To explore the implications of your scenario, you may want to identify stakeholders affected by your developments, factoring in characteristics such as gender, age, minority status, and roles in education (e.g., students, parents, teachers, policymakers). Think critically about how different groups might experience or respond to the scenario.

Going further, consider implications for specific aspects of education, such as different levels and sectors of education, different aspects of policy and practice (e.g., goals, resources, teaching), or different levels of decision-making or ownership of schools (e.g., local/national, public/private). You may then repeat the exercise with a different archetype to create another scenario, enabling comparisons and deeper reflections, for example on the types of policies or strategies that might be effective and resilient across multiple scenarios.

Readers are also invited to go further and experiment with other futures thinking tools. Two examples are presented below. These additional tools can be used to explore specific themes, trends or scenarios in more depth. The section ends with further resources to support more in-depth strategic foresight efforts.

The futures wheel is a tool to help you systematically map out the ripple effects of future scenarios, trends, or events on education systems and policies. It builds on the work of scholars in the field of strategic foresight (see Futures thinking resources section) and aims to identify potential impacts of alternative futures, implications for various stakeholder groups and actions or policies that are needed to respond in the short and longer term. To develop a futures wheel suited to the context and concerns of your education system, you may follow these steps:

• Which are the most significant implications for your education system?

• Which education stakeholders will be most affected by these implications, and who can best address them?

• What actions or polices need to be implemented in the short term?

• What actions or polices need to be implemented in the longer term?

Stress testing helps you assess the resilience of policies, strategies, or objectives by testing how they perform across different future scenarios. It aims to identify which plans are resilient across multiple scenarios, which policies work better in specific scenarios and could be priorities and how current plans could be adapted to make them robust across a range of possible futures. To stress test various policy options across a range of possible futures, you may follow these steps:

• Which plans are resilient across multiple scenarios?

• Which policies are tailored to specific scenarios and could be prioritised or prepared for?

• How can we adapt current plans to make them more robust for a range of possible futures?

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