Violent events and fatalities by distance from roads, 2000-24
Note: Only events for which the co-ordinates are precisely known are included. Source: Authors based on GRIP (Meijer et al., 2018) and ACLED (2024). ACLED data is publicly available data.
Transport infrastructure in North and West Africa plays a dual role: it facilitates governance and economic activities, but also becomes a strategic target during conflicts. Insurgent groups attack roads, train stations, airports, and ports to disrupt state forces, hinder civilian mobility, and weaken governance. Conversely, governments rely on transport networks to project power, control territory, and maintain state sovereignty.
About 70% of violent events and 65% of fatalities occur within just one kilometre of a road in North and West Africa. This pattern holds across all road types but is most pronounced near highways and primary roads. Jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel have intensified violence near transport routes, employing strategies such as ambushes and roadside attacks.
In West Africa, violence is shifting away from roads into isolated rural areas. The proportion of violent events within one kilometre of a road dropped from 86% in 2011 to 61% in 2023. This shift reflects insurgents’ strategies to evade state control, destabilise remote regions, and expand their influence in the Central Sahel. In the Sahara, violent incidents occur farther from roads due to sparse infrastructure. In contrast, over 80% of violent events in North Africa happen within one kilometre of a road, reflecting the predominantly urban nature of conflicts.
Despite the rural shift in West Africa, proximity to roads remains crucial for understanding violence. Many conflict hotspots are located within one to four kilometres of transport routes, highlighting the continued strategic importance of road networks in shaping violence across North and West Africa.