Source: Author’s calculations based on data exported from the websites of the Autonomous Ports of Abidjan, Cotonou, Dakar and Lomé, pages consulted on 20 June 2024.
In September 2023, the military governments of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to strengthen defence co-operation and mutual assistance in the face of the ongoing security crisis. The countries have also expressed their intention to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
These developments come against the backdrop of a food and nutrition crisis affecting nearly 8 million (1) people in the three countries during the June-August 2024 lean season. The announced withdrawal of ECOWAS already seems to be reshaping the flow of transit operations from coastal countries (Benin, Togo, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal) to AES countries. For example, in 2022, transit towards Burkina Faso represented almost 80% of the total volume of transit at the port of Lomé and 76% of transit at the port of Abidjan in 2021; while Mali’s economic activities are mainly directed towards the port of Dakar (92% of the port’s total transit in 2021). Before the crisis, more than 80% of the volume of transit through Cotonou was destined for Niger.
Despite the lifting of sanctions by ECOWAS, Burkina Faso and Niger now channel their imports and exports via Togo, while Mali has strengthened its relations with Guinea and maintained the same level of trade with Senegal, after a brief period of disruption.
However, the new Lomé-Niamey route through Burkina Faso is particularly risky, requiring convoys protected by the military and numerous checkpoints for security reasons. This situation considerably lengthens the journey time on roads that are often poor or non-existent. The World Food Programme reports that its convoys used to take approximately seven days to transport food products from the port of Cotonou to Niamey, whereas the new Lomé to Niamey route via Burkina Faso takes between 30 and 45 days. This means an increase in logistics costs of over 100% compared to the pre-crisis route, with repercussions on food prices.
For example, the price of one bag of imported rice rose by more than 54% in Niger in March 2024, compared with July 2023. This situation is exacerbating inflation, with negative impacts on the country’s already precarious food and nutrition security.
1: Analyses of the Cadre Harmonisé, March 2024 Regional Concertation