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Dashboard for spending on long-term care

This dashboard examines projected long-term care (LTC) spending from public sources up to 2050. It distinguishes between two key components – LTC health, which includes assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs), and LTC social, which covers support with instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs). Users can compare future LTC expenditure trends for a selected country alongside another country or the OECD average. The dashboard also enables comparison across different policy scenarios, reflecting alternative policy choices and their potential impact on spending trajectories.

Ageing and long-term care

As people get older, it becomes more likely that they will need help with day-to-day activities like cooking, cleaning, getting dressed and self-care. This type of support is known as long-term care (LTC). With rapid population ageing, countries need to rethink how systems can promote healthier ageing, improve the quality of care and find new ways to care for people at the end of their lives, while balancing the social adequacy of systems with financial sustainability.

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Future long‑term care expenditure trajectories across OECD countries

41 Pages

Public long‑term care (LTC) spending across OECD countries is projected to almost double by 2050, rising to 2.8% of GDP. This increase is driven by growing numbers of older people with care needs. Both components of LTC will expand: the health‑related share is projected to reach 1.7% of GDP, and the social‑care share 1.1% of GDP. These trends reflect estimated relationships between dependency levels, demographics, and LTC spending, based on OECD time‑series data and survey‑based measures of disability. The rise in LTC costs will occur alongside substantial growth in other age‑related expenditures. By 2050, public pension spending is expected to increase from 8.8% to 10% of GDP, while public health spending will rise from 5.5% to 8.8% of GDP. Given these predictable pressures, governments need long‑term strategies to ensure the sustainability of LTC systems. Key priorities include anticipating future demand, expanding and supporting the workforce, improving productivity, and aligning LTC reforms with broader efforts to manage rising pension and healthcare costs. Scenario analysis – covering cost pressures, healthy ageing, and productivity gains – highlights the importance of policy choices in shaping spending trajectories.

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