International tourist arrivals in OECD countries rose by an estimated 3.4% in 2025 to reach a record 847 million, building on strong growth of 8.1% in 2024. However, as geopolitical tensions, shifting traveller behaviour, and extreme weather-related events continue to shape the tourism landscape, destinations will need to strengthen their ability to anticipate and adapt to uncertainty, according to a new OECD report.
OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2026 shows that the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted global travel flows and increased costs, which is weighing on traveller confidence. Countries in the region are most impacted, along with destinations reliant on the Gulf for air connectivity. These effects are likely to persist in the near term.
"Tourism continues to grow, generating business opportunities, jobs and tax revenues across the OECD,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “Governments and businesses need to work together to sustain this growth and build resilience. This means applying the lessons of the pandemic and the conflict in the Middle East to strengthen crisis preparedness, and managing tourism and visitor flows to ensure the sector delivers lasting benefits.”
Concerns about safety, affordability and cancellations may influence travel decisions, leading travelers to favour more familiar and affordable destinations, shorter stays and lower-cost options. As airlines, tour operators and other tourism providers adjust their programmes for 2027 and beyond, destinations will need to anticipate changing travel patterns and adapt their strategies to evolving geopolitical, economic and weather-related risks.
In a recent OECD survey, one third of OECD countries expect tourism performance to exceed 2025 levels by the end of this year, with many breaking new records. But the picture varies significantly across OECD countries.
Four countries recorded double-digit growth in 2025 to reach record levels of inbound arrivals, led by Finland (up 16.5%), Japan (up 15.8%), Korea (up 15.7%) and Norway (up 12.5%). This builds on a strong recovery in 2024 in Korea and Japan (up 48.4% and 47.1% respectively), aided by expanded connectivity and a weak yen.
Meanwhile, international tourist arrivals fell in four countries in 2025 and have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels: Canada (down 0.6%); Germany (down 0.8%); Ireland (down 2.8%); and the United States (down 5.5%). Inbound tourism in Israel has also been significantly impacted by conflicts in the Middle East, and arrivals remain significantly below pre-pandemic levels (down 70.8%).
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