Executive summary

The ITF Transport Outlook 2021 presents scenarios for global transport demand over the next three decades to 2050. It covers passenger and freight transport and all transport modes. The scenarios include detailed projections for transport’s CO2 emissions under different conditions, allowing an assessment of the potential impacts of future transport activity on climate change. This edition analyses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on transport systems and their role in social equity and human well-being. The scenarios model potential long-term changes caused by the pandemic and link them to challenges and opportunities for decarbonising transport. The Transport Outlook identifies policy actions that are critical to ensure an effective and equitable transition to sustainable mobility on an urban, regional and global level in the wake of the pandemic. Three different scenarios were modelled. The Recovery scenario represents the world’s current efforts, extrapolated to 2050. The Reshape scenario assumes governments will implement ambitious decarbonisation policies beyond those currently in place. In the Reshape+ scenario, governments in addition leverage opportunities for transport decarbonisation created by the Covid-19 pandemic.  