Transport demand and CO2 emissions to 2050

This chapter provides an overview of the long-term prospects for transport demand. Based on projections from the International Transport Forum’s (ITF) suite of models, it presents the baseline trajectory for transport demand to 2050 and outlines its projections for CO2 emissions from the sector. The chapter starts with the baseline scenario projections for passenger transport demand, broken down by mode, for both urban and non-urban areas, between 2015 and 2050. It then focuses on the outlook for freight for the same period, looking at surface freight (rail and road), maritime and air. The chapter concludes with the projections for the CO2 emissions from transport to 2050, by sector, and a brief review of the ITF’s contribution to the Paris Agreement with its Decarbonising Transport project.