Surface transport demand in the long run

This chapter presents an overview of long-run scenarios to 2050 for the development of global surface (road and rail) passenger mobility and freight traffic. The transport scenarios are translated into CO2 emission scenarios by applying potential transport technology pathways. The chapter first introduces the general modelling framework developed by the International Transport Forum. It then summarises total CO2 emissions from surface transport globally. Finally, alternative development paths for both freight and passenger transport are discussed and regional implications of different scenarios for transport demand and CO2 emissions are shown up to 2050.