The changing geography of conflict in North and West Africa

Chapter 4 analyses the changing geography of conflict in North and West Africa since the late 1990s. The chapter shows that conflicts tend to involve numerous nonstate actors with diverging agendas, and target civilians more systematically than before. Border regions tend to attract a disproportionate number of violent events and casualties. Using a novel Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), the chapter then shows that violence has both relocated and expanded over time. Contrary to popular belief that global extremist ideas fuelled by transnational groups spread like wildfire across the region, the chapter shows that conflict is largely localised. Less than one-third of the regions with violence exhibit signs of diffusion. However, it also confirms that the geography of violence is less isolated than 20 years ago. Multiple clusters of high-intensity regions have formed in the Sahel, where violence is spilling over to adjacent regions and countries. These clusters are more likely to be surrounded by a periphery of lower-intensity regions than in the past.