Military interventions in North and West Africa

Chapter 5 examines whether foreign military interventions have succeeded in limiting the intensity and geographical spread of conflicts in North and West Africa. Building on the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi), the chapter shows that neither France's intervention in Mali in 2013 nor NATO's intervention in Libya in 2011 led to long-term stability in the region. During both interventions, the number of regions that experienced violence surged as part of the intervention but then rapidly decreased as the intervention progressed. In the Lake Chad region, the offensive launched by Nigeria and its neighbours in 2015 was a turning point in the war against Boko Haram, initially reducing the intensity of violence and limiting it to remote areas. However, the locations of violence have been more persistent, while not diminishing in intensity and more dispersed where violence continues to occur. Overall, this speaks to Boko Haram’s resiliency even in the face of multinational intervention.